Alona Lebedieva: Why the Crisis in Paris May Affect Kyiv
Alona Lebedieva
On September 8, the French parliament passed a vote of no confidence in Bayrou’s government. A total of 194 deputies voted in favor, while 364 voted against. The initiative came from Bayrou himself, who sought to secure support amid the protracted crisis surrounding the 2026 budget. With public debt rising, the government proposed freezing social benefits and pensions — an unpopular but economically realistic measure.
Last year, France’s budget deficit reached 5.8% of GDP, well above the EU’s official target of 3%. Public debt has exceeded €3.35 trillion, or 114% of GDP — nearly twice the EU’s recommended threshold.
New Prime Minister and Parliamentary Crisis
Following Bayrou’s resignation, President Emmanuel Macron appointed former Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister — the fifth head of government in just two years. However, the appointment alone does not resolve the crisis: the cabinet still needs to be negotiated with parliamentary forces, where opposition blocs dominate.
“Chronic government–parliament crises began in June 2024, when Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called early elections. There was no obvious need for this step,” emphasizes Alona Lebedieva, owner of the Ukrainian industrial and investment group Aurum Group.
Mass Protests in France
On Lecornu’s very first day in office, large-scale demonstrations broke out against budget policy. According to the French Ministry of the Interior, more than 175,000 people took part in 550 rallies nationwide under the “Bloquons Tout” (“Block Everything”) movement. Protesters targeted President Macron and the budget cuts, convinced that the new prime minister would simply continue Bayrou’s course.
As reported by AP, the demonstrations were accompanied by road blockades, arson, and riots. In Rennes, a bus was set on fire, while in the southwest, a blaze damaged power lines, halting train traffic. The government deployed 80,000 police officers; 473 protesters were arrested, including 203 in Paris.
Opposition as a Source of Instability
Parliament is now controlled by two opposition forces — Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and the left-wing coalition dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed. “Under these circumstances, the government is entirely dependent on the opposition. They can block any bill and send the cabinet into resignation,” explains Lebedieva.
This amounts to a de facto paralysis of the legislative branch and a high risk of prolonged political destabilization.
Implications for Ukraine
“France is plunging into a new wave of domestic political turmoil. This will significantly complicate Macron’s ability to pursue international initiatives. His positions on Ukraine or the Middle East will carry less weight, as partners will be less inclined to listen to Paris,” notes Lebedieva.
For Kyiv, this is of particular importance. Bayrou’s government maintained a consistent pro-Ukrainian stance, while the growing influence of Le Pen could weaken EU support for Ukraine. Her party opposes further aid to Kyiv and advocates a review of sanctions against Russia.
Political instability in Paris makes Ukraine’s diplomatic map more complicated. This raises the importance of other partners — Germany, Italy, and the countries of Central Europe. Ukraine must actively diversify its diplomatic efforts to avoid excessive reliance on France.
Alona Lebedieva
Aurum Group
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