AGP Executive Report

Football Governance Clash: UEFA rejected a reported FIFA plan to sell stakes in the World Cup to private investors, calling it a line football’s bodies should never cross and saying the tournament isn’t FIFA’s to sell. Retail Supplier Push: Dollar General launched its annual Call for Small Businesses, inviting eligible U.S. firms to apply for supplier partnerships and support via its Small Business Development Program. Trade & Industrial Support: A Thorold manufacturer welcomed $11.3m in federal funding under the Regional Tariff Response Initiative, using the money to buy a new laser cutter. Market Concentration in Malaysia: Malaysia’s EPF backed proposals to expand the FBM KLCI beyond 30 constituents to reduce bank-heavy index concentration. Inflation Politics in Australia: Reserve Bank rate-hike warnings sparked a Labor vs. Nationals clash ahead of fresh inflation data. U.S. Trade Data: The U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed in June, but Reuters notes it may still subtract from Q2 growth. Corporate/Legal Watch: Multiple investor-rights notices and class actions were filed or updated, including Hertz, Cogent, and others, with upcoming lead-plaintiff deadlines. Business Compliance: Arizona added government ID verification for online business filings, while Kuwait paused new freelance business licenses pending rule updates.

Malaysia Macro & Markets: OECD says Malaysia can still grow around 5% in 2026-27, but warns of downside risks from trade tensions and weaker global demand, while inflation is expected to edge up. Investment Climate: Bank Negara points to strong investor appetite for Malaysia’s recent US$1.5bn sukuk and says RM815bn in approved investments over two years could support jobs. AI Infrastructure Deals: Axe Compute signed a new 5-year US$1.5bn+ contract to build a dedicated NVIDIA Blackwell AI cluster in the US, with large customer prepayments expected soon. Semiconductor Supply Chain: Mi Equipment plans to expand Penang R&D and advanced packaging capacity, targeting die sorting, AI applications and bonding solutions. Energy & Grid Constraints: Ireland lost 15% of affordable wind power in H1 2026 due to grid limits, highlighting the need for faster grid investment. Trade & Logistics: Türkiye is pitching itself as an alternative logistics hub, citing corridor diversification amid chokepoint risks. Corruption & Funds: Malaysia’s MACC is seeking overseas documents via mutual legal assistance in its KWAP retirement fund investment probe, focusing on Dubai, Singapore and Indonesia. Corporate Finance: United Asiapac Energy launched an IPO on Bursa Malaysia’s ACE Market, aiming to raise RM48.73m for expansion.

Macro Outlook: AMRO warned more weakness for the Philippines this year, keeping growth at 4.1% but cutting inflation to 5.7%, still above the 3% target, as oil shock and trade tensions bite. Rates & Inflation Watch: Philippine T-bill yields slid ahead of July inflation data, with investors also reacting to renewed US-Iran tensions that briefly pushed oil above $100. Policy & Tax Relief: President Marcos Jr. urged Congress to pass tax relief to protect middle-class workers and small entrepreneurs amid the Middle East fallout. Energy & Payments: Malaysia is studying using SARA credit via QR payments at markets, while also weighing higher biodiesel blends (B10 to B12/B15) to cut diesel use and extend supply. Markets & Tech: US stocks closed mixed as chip weakness and concerns around financing offset hopes from a US-Iran pause; investors also look ahead to major Big Tech earnings and a Fed decision. Sports-Business Crossover: Fanatics agreed to buy a regulated prediction exchange and clearinghouse, aiming to speed up new market launches. Trade & Infrastructure: Canada opened the Gordie Howe bridge to Detroit despite tariff tensions, boosting cross-border capacity. Legal/Investors: Yale and Biohaven won a $4m trade-secret verdict tied to protein-degrading drug design.

Policy & Tax Relief: Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used his SONA to push tax relief for middle-class workers and small entrepreneurs, including higher income-tax exemptions (up to ₱350,000) and lower rates for other wage earners, aiming to cushion the lingering Middle East shock. Central Banking Leadership: Indonesia’s central bank governor Perry Warjiyo resigned; senior deputy Destry Damayanti becomes acting governor as the government starts formal dismissal steps. Malaysia Growth & Investment: ACCA/IMA says Malaysia’s fundamentals are resilient despite higher logistics and fuel costs, with inflation easing to 1.9% in June and 5.8% growth in 2Q; AMRO also lifted Malaysia’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.9% on AI-driven exports and data-centre investment. Capital Markets Flows: Bursa Malaysia saw local retailers return to net buying with RM223.1m inflows, while local institutions kept selling. Trade & Logistics: Qatar and Saudi Arabia held a high-level virtual meeting to simplify customs and boost logistics cooperation; China’s Pinglu Canal is set to open in September to cut inland-to-ASEAN shipping time and costs. Inflation Pressure on Households: Australia’s fuel excise relief ends, with motorists warned prices could jump by more than 16c/L plus inflation-linked increases. Business Environment & Execution: Malaysia’s MyCEB booked 416 business events for 2026-2030 with RM3.98bn projected impact, while the Economy Ministry reported strong development-spending progress and targets for 2027. Digital Trust Risk: Ghana’s digital economy forum flagged fraud and weak coordination as threats to its cash-lite push, calling for better fraud intelligence sharing and public education. M&A/Competition Watch: Apple’s lawsuit against OpenAI spotlights a broader fight over control of post-smartphone AI tech, not just today’s partnerships. Sports as Business: MLB’s Aug. 3 trade deadline is driving major roster decisions, with the Red Sox–Nationals swap (Curtis Mead for Connelly Early) already graded and debated.

Trade Policy Shock: The Trump administration rolled out forced-labor tariffs covering about 60 countries and roughly 99% of U.S. imports, reviving inflation worries and raising business input costs. Central Banking Watch: Markets are now treating the July 28–29 Fed meeting as a potential rate-hike showdown as oil prices jump and tariff effects feed into inflation risk. Airline Consolidation: United explored a merger with Delta last year, but talks ended before formal negotiations—highlighting how antitrust hurdles can still stop big deals. Regional Trade & Logistics: Samoa said its WTO “Geneva Weeks” helped it strengthen its voice in global trade talks, while Qatar and Saudi Arabia discussed ways to streamline customs and improve logistics efficiency. Africa Resilience: Nigeria’s central bank and the WTO’s Okonjo-Iweala and CBN governor Cardoso will headline an Abuja forum focused on building resilience amid geo-economic uncertainty. Local Business & Cost Pressure: A Bridgeport thrift store reported sales doubling as shoppers trade down amid higher gas and grocery prices. Sports as Investment Signal: Kuwait’s $16bn Shaheen pipeline project is being pitched as a catalyst for foreign investment, with calls to involve more local private capital. Credit Quality: Philippine banks’ bad-loan ratio fell to 3.29% in June as inflation cooled and lending expanded.

M&A/Antitrust: Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery have agreed to delay their $110B merger until June 2027 as U.S. antitrust cases head to trial, keeping the media giants legally separate and integration on ice. AI/Capital Markets: DeepSeek paused its second fundraising round after leaked comments by founder Liang Wenfeng went viral, highlighting investor sensitivity around China’s reliance on Nvidia chips amid U.S. export limits. Tech/Markets: IBM shares fell about 25% after a weak outlook tied to customers shifting spend toward AI hardware and pausing some cybersecurity projects while they reassess needs. Trade/Policy: Trump’s tariff push is moving into a more court-tested phase, with new duties tied to forced-labor enforcement and more trade probes expected. Inflation/Central Banking: The U.S. Fed is expected to hold rates steady as inflation concerns resurface alongside renewed Middle East risk and oil prices near $100. Regional Trade Deals: Ghana and India aim for a $6B trade boost over the next decade, while Israel pitches Canada on tech and safer AI despite diplomatic strain. Business & Consumer: A Malaysian woman lost RM119,599 to an investment scam after Facebook ads promised fast returns. Infrastructure/Local Economy: BMC plans WhatsApp Business and Google Messages for property tax bills and payments, aiming to cut friction and improve compliance.

Media & Antitrust: Paramount agreed to pause its Warner Bros. Discovery merger until at least June 1, 2027 (or until lawsuits end), as state AG and Writers Guild challenges keep antitrust pressure front and center. Trade & Tariffs: Canada warned Trump’s new tariff threats are already pushing U.S. buyers to cancel orders, with uncertainty triggering layoffs even before any Aug. 19 changes hit. Cross-border Deals: Canada and the UAE wrapped talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement aimed at cutting tariffs and expanding market access beyond the U.S. Energy & Inflation Watch: Central banks are bracing for potential inflation spillovers as oil nears $100 a barrel, complicating rate decisions. China Tech/Capital Markets: DeepSeek froze its second fundraising round after viral investor-linked remarks, while CATL beat profit forecasts as energy storage growth offsets softer EV demand. Corporate Restructuring: Nestlé will move bottled-water brands into a joint venture with Platinum Equity, reshaping its water business. Regional Logistics Risk: Escalation around the Red Sea and Hormuz is again raising shipping-route and supply-chain concerns. Business Finance: KPMG launched its Global Family Business Report 2026, highlighting governance, AI, talent and risk as priorities for family firms.

US Tariffs Backlash: Trump defended new 10%–12.5% forced-labour tariffs as legally durable and said they’re drawing “trillions” in US investment, but allies and trading partners—including Norway, Australia and New Zealand—called the move unjustified and warned it could hit consumers and disrupt trade. Forced-Labour Trade Rules: Malaysia said its US trade agreement will require a two-year window to block imports tied to forced labour, with new mechanisms needed to stop overseas inputs from entering Malaysian-made goods. Trade Deal Momentum: The UAE and Canada wrapped up talks on a CEPA covering aerospace, agri-food, clean energy, data centres and critical minerals, with tariff cuts and simplified procedures pending ratification. Mega-Merger Paused: Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery agreed to suspend their $110B merger through June 2027 as antitrust lawsuits proceed. Inflation Reality Check: US grocery prices are still “rockets and feathers” higher—slowing inflation hasn’t meant cheaper food. Local Business & Infrastructure: Durban’s road upgrades drew criticism from ratepayers’ groups, who want water crisis fixes prioritized; Chino, California advanced a ballot measure to modernize a business license tax burden on small firms. Energy & Renewables: BP is in advanced talks to sell solar unit Lightsource to a Kuwait-backed consortium as it retreats from renewables.

Trade & Human Rights: Canada signed a free trade deal with Ecuador in Ottawa, but critics say it puts profits over human rights and could give Canadian mining firms leverage against local opposition. Tariffs & Global Commerce: The U.S. rolled out new forced-labor tariffs on 60 trade partners, with rates from 10% to 12.5%, drawing fresh protests and raising uncertainty for exporters. M&A & Antitrust: Paramount agreed to pause its $110bn Warner Bros. Discovery merger until June 2027 or shortly after a key court ruling, as a 12-state antitrust challenge plays out. Inflation Watch: Core inflation hit its highest level since 2023 in Albania, signaling persistent price pressure beyond food and energy. Business Travel: India led business travel to the Maldives, with 55% of visitors from India coming for work. Regional Investment: Ethiopia and the U.S. held a public-private dialogue aimed at removing investment barriers and improving market access. Local Economy: England’s 20% business rates cut for pubs and music venues faces calls for Wales to match the move and for local governments to ensure venues actually benefit.

US Trade Shock: The U.S. rolled out new forced-labour tariffs on 60 partners, with rates of 10% to 12.5% effective July 24, replacing an expiring Trump-era duty and raising pressure on major economies including China, India and the EU. Markets & Inflation: Global bonds sold off as oil prices surged, pushing yields higher and reviving inflation worries ahead of major central-bank decisions. Eurozone Watch: An ECB survey showed inflation expectations broadly steady, but growth forecasts weakened, keeping the door open to further tightening. Corporate Deals: HSBC agreed to sell its Singapore life and insurance business to Allianz in a £1.6bn deal, while Rio Tinto transferred its aluminium MMC customer base to Cymat. Investment & Industry: Malaysia’s government priced a record-low spread US$1.5bn global sukuk after 4.7x oversubscription; China’s State Grid reported 310bn yuan fixed-asset investment in H1. Tech & Skills: Learning Tree became a ServiceNow authorised training partner, and Humanoid raised US$152m to scale industrial humanoid robots. Energy & Trade Routes: Middle East shipping risks and chokepoint pressure are reshaping oil and LNG logistics.

U.S. Tariff Reset: The U.S. will impose new 10%–12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners starting Friday, replacing expiring Trump-era duties and citing forced-labor concerns—major targets include Canada, Mexico, India, the U.K., and the EU. Antitrust & M&A: The DOJ is moving to streamline merger reviews, aiming to focus enforcers on key issues earlier in the process. Trade Policy Risk: The USTR warned that EU action against Alphabet could cloud the EU-U.S. trade deal, adding pressure to tech and digital-services negotiations. Energy Security Investment: NATO approved a major eastward expansion of its fuel pipeline network, with Romania set to receive about €2.15bn. Aviation & Jobs: Ryanair plans a €50m investment at Shannon Airport for an MRO hangar and engineering academy, targeting 400 skilled jobs. Monetary Watch: Türkiye’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 37% as analysts flag sticky inflation and external risks. Local Business & Growth: Louisville expanded below-market lending for small firms via an accelerator partnership, while a new wildfire resource hub in Colorado pushes preparedness ahead of peak season. Markets: Gold is expected to trade in a narrow range in H2 as higher U.S. yields and a stronger dollar weigh on prices.

Middle East & Markets: Oil jumped toward $98–$100 a barrel after renewed US-Iran strikes and Houthi attacks on tankers, pushing European borrowing costs higher and reviving inflation worries ahead of the ECB. UK Hospitality Policy: Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a 20% business rates cut for pubs, clubs and live music venues from April 2027, saving a typical pub about £1,100, with funding via changes to other reliefs. Inflation & Rates Watch: Bank of England rate-hike odds are back as Strait of Hormuz disruption risk threatens energy prices, even as UK inflation eased to 2.6%. Trade & Tariffs: China is soliciting input on reciprocal US tariff cuts covering about $30bn in trade, as both sides refine a Board of Trade framework. Trade Facilitation: Pakistan launched a mobile Pakistan Single Window app to speed customs clearance, declarations and certificate access. Investment & Regulation: Papua New Guinea unveiled mining reforms to attract long-term investors, while Kazakhstan highlighted improving investment security and institutional stability. Corporate Deal: Nestlé plans a €3bn water JV with Platinum Equity, creating Peranel for premium water brands. AI for Small Business: A local workshop series will teach practical AI workflows for small operators.

EU Antitrust: The European Commission cleared Paramount’s $81B takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, but imposed conditions aimed at protecting cinema distribution competition, including steps around Paramount’s EEA stake in United International Pictures. AI & Cloud Earnings: Alphabet’s latest results eased investor worries by showing Google Cloud revenue up 82% year over year to $24.8B, driven by enterprise AI demand, while investors also weigh whether Big Tech capex will outpace cash flow. AI Spending Debate: Reuters analysis says major hyperscalers are on track to spend more on capex than they generate in free cash flow by 2027, putting pressure on returns if cloud growth doesn’t keep up. Trade & Investment: The U.K.-India trade deal entered force, cutting tariffs for most goods and expanding services access, while the EAC urged member states to remove border bottlenecks to lift intra-regional trade. Energy & Geopolitics: Ukraine called for an urgent UN Security Council meeting after Russian strikes disrupted the Black Sea trade corridor during peak harvest season. Small Business Support: The U.S. SBA launched a $6M competition to modernize Women’s Business Centers, expanding counseling and training networks in underserved states. Banking Deal: Two Berkshire County banks will merge into Trailmark Bank, pending regulator approval.

UK Inflation Watch: Britain’s CPI slowed to 2.6% in June (from 2.8%), helped by cheaper fuel and softer food prices, but analysts warn the relief may fade as Middle East tensions push oil back up. Trade Tensions: Canada and the U.S. are set to intensify talks after the U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, while B.C. Premier David Eby vowed to keep U.S. alcohol off shelves. Middle East Shock: Oil prices are back near $95 as U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, feeding inflation risk globally. AI for Business: OpenAI launched a small-business ChatGPT program, while ANNA Money expanded via acquisitions to automate startup-to-tax workflows; Qumis rolled out AI agents for insurance coverage analysis. M&A/Antitrust: A U.S. judge temporarily blocked the Warner Bros./Paramount merger, and India’s Supreme Court refused an interim stay on a Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs merger case. Energy & Investment: Egypt secured $391m for grid upgrades tied to Gulf of Suez renewables; Australia’s Yanara won €150m to build 2GW+ renewables. Real Economy Pressure: South Africa’s inflation jumped to 5.0% in June, keeping cost pressures front and center.

US–Jordan Trade Deal: The White House says a new reciprocal agreement will keep duty-free access for most US goods to Jordan while Jordanian exports face a 10% tariff into the US, aiming to cut logistics barriers and boost investment. US–Canada Tariff Pressure: Canada’s PM Mark Carney says he and Donald Trump agreed to intensify talks after the US announced 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, with markets still pushing higher despite the threat. Corporate Deal Scrutiny: A judge paused the Paramount–Warner Bros. merger, while US groups also urged regulators to break up BlackRock’s proposed AES utility takeover. Market & Finance: Chubb reported higher Q2 profit on stronger underwriting and investment returns; yen carry trades held up as investors still favor the currency for funding. Business Regulation & Growth: Malaysia moves to revoke a firm’s “Malaysia Digital” status after a local license was pulled; Haryana proposes a Right to Business bill using self-certification and fewer inspections for eligible MSMEs. Tech & Messaging: Truecaller and Route Mobile expand business messaging, and Route Mobile buys Heltar’s AI engagement platform to grow non-SMS offerings. Global Trade Routes: China’s land routes through Central Asia are expanding as rail freight grows amid shipping risk. Inflation & Risk: UNICEF warns Middle East-linked shocks could push up to 23.4 million more children into monetary poverty by end-2026.

Media M&A Roadblock: A US judge has paused Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery’s roughly $110bn merger for at least two weeks after state antitrust suits argued it would “extinguish competition,” adding fresh uncertainty for deal timelines. Trade Tensions: Trump’s new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports are roiling North American talks, with Canada’s premiers meeting in P.E.I. to coordinate responses as U.S. pressure grows. Inflation & Rates: New Zealand’s inflation print showed energy-driven price pressure, keeping expectations high for further Reserve Bank hikes and leaving grocery costs in focus. Investor Fraud Probe: A federal court issued a temporary order in an alleged $2.1m investor fraud case tied to claims of 10%-15% monthly returns, with funds allegedly diverted to personal use. Business & Growth: Compass reported solid Q2 performance with client retention at 96% and new business wins up 16%, while Germany’s “Made for Germany” initiative pledged €800bn+ in investment through 2028. AI & Payments: Malaysia retail shoppers increasingly use AI for shopping, but many still resist letting it complete purchases, citing trust and payment errors.