AGP Executive Report

Anti-Corruption & Investor Protection: Malaysia’s KWAP confirmed its RM163.4m eFishery stake is being pursued for recovery after MACC opened an investigation into the alleged organised fraud and financial-report manipulation that led to a former CEO’s nine-year conviction. Public Investment & Services: Malaysia’s Public Service Department approved 66,312 new non-trade-off health posts for the Ministry of Health, with RM6.7bn in funding implications, plus further review of additional staffing for new and upgraded facilities. Food Security & Agribusiness Finance: Nigeria’s Vice President Shettima launched a $500m Niger Delta Agricultural and Investment Fund aimed at returns across the value chain, supported by major development banks and private financiers. Trade & Regional Deals: Uzbekistan and Türkiye concluded talks to expand a preferential trade agreement, targeting $5bn in mutual turnover; Pakistan’s business lobby said Pak-Iran trade could reach $10bn if banking and cross-border procedures improve. AI & Business Tech: Parallel Web Systems, led by ex-Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal, plugged into Google Cloud’s Gemini to help enterprises adopt AI search faster. Investment Climate Watch: Gujarat topped India’s first NITI Aayog Investment Friendliness Index 2026, while Odisha also landed in the top performers, highlighting state-level reforms and faster approvals. Energy, Inflation Pressure: FDA issued a Class I recall for NJ ice pops over undeclared allergens; UK grocery inflation ticked up to 2.6% YoY, with fish prices driving the jump amid Middle East and trade disruptions.

AI Infrastructure & Capital Markets: Meta is reportedly in talks to lease computing power from its data centers to Anthropic in a deal that could reach $10B over two years, underscoring how AI demand is turning chips and power access into strategic assets. M&A & Antitrust: Paramount and state AGs spar in court over how fast to move an antitrust challenge to the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger, with a judge set to rule before July 22. Trade & Shipping Security: Analysts warn Iran’s “dual-strait” push could elevate the Bab el-Mandeb into a Hormuz-like chokepoint, raising risks for oil and maritime trade. Inflation & Macro: Eurozone inflation is confirmed at 2.8% (lowest since February), while Bulgaria reports 5.2% annual inflation and a widening trade deficit. Small Business & Local Economy: U.S. SBA disaster loans are available for Missouri storm damage; meanwhile, local businesses from a Wilmington bar to a Glasgow restaurant face closures or revenue hits from rising costs and roadworks. Developing-World Finance: Bangladesh’s finance adviser urges a UN-led debt relief mechanism to protect investment in children and women amid fiscal strain.

Hotel & Real Estate Investment: CBRE says hotel investment in Portugal hit about €512m in H1, up 82% year-on-year, with five-star and ultra-luxury deals driving much of the surge. Trade & Diplomacy: India’s Piyush Goyal kicked off talks in Finland, signing MoUs to deepen trade and investment in areas like digital tech, space, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. Inflation Watch: Malaysia’s June inflation eased to 1.9% (from 2.0%), while Cyprus accelerated to 4.1%, outpacing the euro area. M&A & Corporate Moves: LianMedical completed its merger with LianBio, changing its name and positioning for a medtech platform in Asia-Pacific. Antitrust & Politics: Georgia AG race candidate Tanya Miller urged Chris Carr to join a California-led bid to block Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery deal. Energy & Industry: Uniper reaffirmed a EUR5bn plan through 2030, targeting renewables and flexible power, with data centres a key demand driver. Geopolitics & Markets: European stocks slipped as AI-led tech jitters spread; Iran-US strikes renewed Gulf risk and oil volatility. Business Climate & Jobs: Ohio added four new minority business assistance centers to help entrepreneurs start and scale. Crypto & Finance: HTX DAO burned $HTX worth over $32.82m in H1 2026, citing resilience amid tight liquidity.

Bilateral Trade & Investment: Namibia and South Africa are set to formally launch a joint business council to deepen trade and investment, with chambers of commerce expected to run a permanent secretariat and focus on minerals, energy, infrastructure, agro-processing and related services. Geopolitics & Inflation: India’s economy is feeling renewed war-driven pressure as Strait of Hormuz disruptions lift oil costs, widening the trade deficit and reviving rate-hike chatter. Food & Energy Prices: Iraq’s inflation cooled to 3% in May as food, vegetables and fuel prices fell, while housing and utilities also eased. Local Inflation Watch: Philippines’ Oriental Mindoro inflation slowed to 6.6% in June, helped by slower transport price growth and easing food and fuel components. Trade & Markets: U.S.-China steps to roll back tariffs are boosting optimism for corn and soybean demand, with China’s planned purchases supporting prices. M&A & Corporate Moves: Jasper Therapeutics completed its all-stock acquisition of Kira Pharmaceuticals, while Glucotrack and Lōkahi Therapeutics finished a strategic business combination to build a capital-efficient healthcare platform. Antitrust: Paramount is pushing back hard against state AGs’ bid to block its Warner Bros. merger, calling the challenge among the weakest in modern antitrust history. Business Risk & Fraud: Saskatchewan regulators warned residents about “Profit Rings,” a likely scam using fake endorsements to lure investors. Investment & Industry: Zimbabwe is seeking Chinese investment for the Goromonzi Agro-Industrial Park, aiming to build an export-oriented agro-processing zone.

AI & Markets: Anthropic is edging closer to a mega-IPO as bankers line up investor meetings, with a potential listing as early as October—another test of whether the AI spending boom can keep delivering for public investors. Semiconductors & Investment: TSMC announced an extra $100B Arizona AI investment after a 77% profit jump, underscoring how chip supply chains are becoming a jobs-and-industrial-policy story, not just a tech one. Inflation & Rates: Gold slid as Middle East escalation revived rate worries even after softer U.S. inflation data; meanwhile, Indian bond yields fell on the same theme as markets recalibrated. Trade & Regional Growth: Kenya is set to double exports to Tanzania after Dar scrapped an industrial development levy, a direct hit at intra-East Africa friction. Energy Security: Malaysia says it will only approve data centre projects after checking power and water capacity—an increasingly common constraint as AI demand collides with utilities. Fraud & Governance: Malaysia’s PAC may review KWAP’s eFishery investment after allegations of organised fraud, highlighting how pension money is still vulnerable when oversight fails. Geopolitics: Strait of Hormuz closure risks are back in focus, with officials warning of oil, shipping, and food-price spillovers.

Tax Policy: Malaysia said it has no plans for a 2% wealth tax, arguing exemptions would blunt revenue, while it is widening the tax base via capital gains on unlisted shares and higher taxes on large dividends and partner profit distributions. Tax Administration: Malaysia also reported RM14.7bn in excess tax refunds to 3.17m cases, prioritizing MSMEs and cash-flow-stressed firms. Consumer Credit Regulation: Malaysia’s BNPL market is growing fast—8m active users and RM5.3bn outstanding—while regulators set licensing and conduct standards, with applications due by Nov 30. Trade & Investment: India-UK’s CETA took effect, cutting tariffs for textiles, whisky and cars, with duties on Scotch whisky and British cars set to fall in phases. Geopolitics & Shipping Costs: New Zealand warned that disruptions around Hormuz and the Red Sea are raising freight costs, highlighting how countries can “free-ride” on others’ defense of trade routes. Inflation Watch: Nigeria’s headline inflation eased slightly to 15.91% in June, but food inflation climbed to 17.52%. M&A/Antitrust: US states and writers’ groups moved to block the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, arguing it would reduce competition and harm jobs and pay. Business & Tech: Mechanics say high-tech vehicles are harder to repair without dealer access, raising right-to-repair pressure. Corporate Finance: Wall Street climbed on cooling inflation data and strong earnings; PayPal jumped after reports of a potential Stripe-led buyout.

Inflation Watch: US consumer inflation slowed in June, lifting stocks and pushing Bitcoin back toward the mid-$60,000s as traders looked ahead to more inflation data and the Fed. Trade & Geopolitics: The Strait of Hormuz dispute escalated again as Trump moved to reinstate a blockade and a 20% levy on foreign ships, raising fresh risks for oil, shipping costs and global trade. India-UK Deal: India’s India-UK CETA took effect July 15, with leaders saying tariff cuts and services access will boost farmers, MSMEs and skilled mobility. EU Trade Politics: Germany said any EU vote on a boycott or tougher trade terms over West Bank settlements would need unanimous approval, making action harder. M&A & Antitrust: Writers Guild of America sued to block the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger, arguing it would reduce competition and suppress writers’ pay and output. Business Finance: Flex raised $70m to expand AI-native private banking for middle-market owners, while Hong Leong Investment Bank upgraded Malaysia’s 2026 growth outlook on stronger E&E and semiconductor demand. Regional Business: Kenya leaders urged reopening the Kenya–Somalia border to revive livestock trade and recover customs revenue.

Inflation & Rates: US CPI cooled more than expected in June, with headline inflation down to 3.5% and core flat, triggering a bond rally as traders pulled back July rate-hike bets and pushed expectations toward later in the year. Fed Watch: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank has “no tolerance” for persistent inflation, even as markets react to the softer print. Trade Fraud Crackdown: The DOJ’s Trade Fraud Task Force topped $1B in recoveries and is setting up a new legal section to prosecute trade crimes, with tariff-evasion cases a major driver. Antitrust & Media M&A: California and a coalition of 12 states sued to block the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger, arguing it would “extinguish competition,” while Paramount says it may take the fight to the Supreme Court. Middle East Trade & Shipping: Trump dropped a planned 20% Strait of Hormuz transit fee, pivoting to Gulf trade and investment deals, even as the US reinstated a blockade tied to Iranian ports and cargo. Business Services & Policy: Texas expanded “Texas Express” expedited business filings statewide, and the SBA faced oversight scrutiny on how to fund rural and small-business support. AI for Business: Legal ops is shifting from AI hype to measurable business results, while SoftBank is rolling out AI cybersecurity “patching as a service” for large Japanese firms.

US Antitrust: 12 states led by California sued to block Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery’s ~$111B merger, arguing it would “extinguish competition” and raise prices for theaters and cable distribution. Inflation Watch (US): Even with June cooling, analysts warn price pressure isn’t over as oil and gas volatility tied to Middle East tensions could re-heat costs ahead of the CPI release. Media & Policy: The fight is also spilling into Congress, where a US–Israel defense tech cooperation provision would deepen intelligence and weapons R&D links. China Trade: China’s H1 goods trade jumped 16.9% to 25.47T yuan, with exports up 13.4% and imports up 22.1%, supported by AI-chip and auto demand. India Prices & Trade: India’s retail inflation rose to 4.38% in June (food 5.32%) while the merchandise trade deficit widened 59.3% to $30.4B. Energy/AI Costs: Data-center build-outs are pushing up costs for chips, equipment and electricity, feeding broader inflation concerns. Regional Deals: Philippines and Israel signed an AEO mutual recognition pact to speed customs for qualified traders; Malaysia’s PM ordered talks with manufacturers hit by the global supply crisis, especially plastics. Business Climate (Germany): Retailers warn conditions are worsening as energy, labor and purchasing costs squeeze margins.

US Antitrust: California and 11 other states sued to block Paramount’s $110bn Warner Bros. Discovery merger, arguing it would cut competition and raise prices while shrinking content and innovation. AI Infrastructure Investment: Meta is expanding its Louisiana AI data center to 5 gigawatts, lifting investment to $50bn and aiming to create thousands of construction jobs plus 1,000 operations roles. Trade & Supply Chains: Malaysia’s PM ordered help for manufacturers under global supply pressure, with special focus on plastics used across packaging, E&E, autos and medical devices. Defense Manufacturing: West Virginia announced Helsing’s $50m investment to build advanced defense manufacturing, including an AI-enabled strike drone, creating at least 60 high-paid jobs. Global Trade Routes: Bangladesh’s Matarbari deep-sea port is set to start in 2029, enabling larger vessels and reducing reliance on transshipment hubs. Corporate Deals: Milux proposed buying Movon for RM150m to expand home-appliance distribution. Inflation Watch: Fed officials flagged “hot” core inflation risk as home prices hit record highs. Legal/Tech: Apple sued OpenAI over alleged trade secret theft tied to former Apple staff.

Geopolitics and Markets: Oil jumped and shares slipped after US-Iran strikes reignited fears over the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides trading claims about whether commercial shipping can pass. AI and IP: Australia’s copyright reform debate is heating up as Anthropic presses officials, arguing AI training should be treated as fair use, while the government says the rules are still unsettled. Trade Negotiations: India is slowing down US talks, refusing to rush an interim deal that doesn’t protect agriculture and tariff red lines, as Washington weighs new duties. EU Sanctions on Settlements: EU foreign ministers will weigh options to curb trade with Israeli settlements, with proposals ranging from licensing to tariffs or a ban. SME Finance: The OPEC Fund is lending $50m to Viet Nam’s SeABank to expand small-business and climate-focused lending. Energy Investment Rules: Croatia proposed a new geothermal georesources law to simplify permitting and attract underground energy investment. Housing and Property: UK mid-market firms report revenue growth barely beating inflation, while property professionals warn reforms could pressure residential values and worsen supply. Renewables Compliance: India reopened its solar commissioning extension portal under ALMM List-II, extending submissions to July 23, 2027.

AI Trade-Secret War: Apple sued OpenAI and two former employees, alleging stolen trade secrets tied to ChatGPT hardware ambitions, escalating a partner-turned-rival fight. Inflation & Consumer Strain: U.S. households are still feeling higher prices as economists flag sticky inflation risks and a heavy week of data and bank earnings. Middle East Energy Shock: Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and talk of Strait of Hormuz disruption are rattling oil markets and raising global inflation and growth concerns. Investment Push in the Philippines: BOI approvals jumped 21% to ₱461.84B in H1 2026, led by renewable energy, with 124 projects and 14,415 jobs expected. Investor Caution in Manila: Local equities face renewed caution as Middle East tensions threaten crude spikes, while June core inflation hit a 31-month high. Trade Deal Momentum (NZ-India): FTA talks move forward as New Zealand’s business diplomacy helps cut tariffs on 95% of exports. Russia Financial Stress: Intel warns Russia’s economy is propped up by debt and that a banking crisis could be brewing. Small Business & Policy: EMA urges election policy “certainty” for energy, infrastructure, jobs and investment to avoid more business shocks. Energy Crime Crackdown: Philippine police arrested seven in an anti-illegal fuel operation, seizing about 31,199 liters of diesel worth ~₱62.29M.

US–Iran Escalation: The Strait of Hormuz was reclosed after fresh US and Iranian strikes, raising risks for global oil flows and inflation expectations. Tech IP Clash: Apple sued OpenAI and two former employees over alleged trade-secret theft tied to AI hardware plans, escalating a high-stakes rivalry over talent and intellectual property. Trade & Investment Diplomacy: India and New Zealand upgraded ties to a strategic partnership, targeting ₹35,000 crore in bilateral trade by 2030 and expanding maritime security and early free-trade implementation. Regional Business Climate: Bangladesh business leaders urged lower costs, simpler trade licensing and faster letter-of-credit procedures to improve the investment environment. Energy & Markets: Gold and silver stayed under pressure as investors weigh US-Iran tensions, crude moves, and upcoming inflation data. Housing as an Economic Issue: Cape and Islands lawmakers face renewed pressure to act on affordability, while Abuja’s housing deficit and policy gaps keep pushing low-income residents to the margins. Corporate Moves: Venezuela loosened PDVSA control via new oil regulations to broaden private investment as output nears 1.2m bpd.

Fed Inflation Watch: The Fed told Congress inflation “stepped up further” this spring, citing tariffs, energy costs tied to the war, and the AI buildout, while also saying the labor market has stabilized (unemployment 4.2%). Energy & Trade Routes: Oil prices eased as the U.S.-Iran standoff cooled at moments, but threats around the Strait of Hormuz keep LNG and shipping risk front and center for global energy costs. Big Tech Legal Fight: Apple sued OpenAI, alleging theft of trade secrets by former Apple staff and access to confidential systems—raising stakes for AI hardware competition. AI for Business Ops: Microsoft launched “Frontier Company” with a $2.5B push to help enterprises deploy AI, while legal teams are increasingly adopting AI contract review tools to cut review cycles. Cross-Border Deals: India and New Zealand upgraded ties with a target to double trade to about Rs 35,000 crore by 2030, and Bahrain’s EDB wrapped a UK roadshow to deepen investor engagement. Local Economy Pressure: Dimapur businesses report a consumer drain tied to illicit market “syndicates,” while Ghana’s KIC and Rabo Foundation backed 100 agri-SMEs through a business booster program. Small Business Spotlight: SBA opened nominations for the 2026 National Small Business Week Awards.

Tech & IP Clash: Apple sued OpenAI in California, alleging a coordinated pattern of trade secret theft by former Apple employees to speed up OpenAI’s AI hardware plans, escalating a partnership breakdown in consumer AI. Trade & Investment: India and New Zealand elevated ties to a Strategic Partnership and backed an India-New Zealand FTA, with Modi saying bilateral trade could double by 2030 and NZ pledged $20B investment in India over 15 years. Energy Crunch: Iraq’s power gap is pushing a solar buildout—experts estimate 20–25M panels to add about 12 GW as demand surges and grid upgrades lag. Regional Trade Pressure: The EU warned Pakistan over human-rights concerns tied to its GSP+ status, raising the risk of preferential trade access being withdrawn. M&A & Antitrust Watch: Oregon dropped its motion to delay the $110B Paramount–Warner Bros. merger, though other states still review competition concerns. Business & Economy at Home: Seattle’s downtown office vacancy is rising, with a report pointing to its payroll tax burden; in North Carolina, housing shortages are worsening affordability as new construction can’t keep up.

Tech & IP Clash: Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging trade secret theft tied to OpenAI’s push into consumer hardware, naming two former Apple executives and claiming stolen product designs and supply-chain know-how. M&A Watch: EasyJet said it’s considering a $7.7B takeover bid from Apollo, replacing an earlier Castlelake offer. Sports Business & Risk: The NBA put the Raptors-Clippers Kawhi Leonard trade on hold pending an investigation into a 2024 “no-show” endorsement deal, adding uncertainty to the deal’s value. Trade Policy: The EU Parliament approved a modernised EU-Mexico trade pact and an interim agreement to expand market access and procurement while updating IP and sustainability rules. Regional Growth & Investment: New Zealand is pushing a “small economies club” agenda at APEC to cut non-tariff barriers, advance digital trade, and tackle subsidies. Health Systems Funding: Maine DHHS will invest about $30M to help rural providers upgrade electronic medical records. Agriculture as a Trade Lever: Fiji and Australia business groups are targeting agriculture as the next major bilateral trade push. Co-op Consolidation: Oregon and Northern California farm co-ops Grange Co-op and Farm Supply approved a merger effective Oct. 1.