AGP Executive Report

BRICS Trade Push: China’s Xi unveiled a “Greater Brics” plan tying AI and trade to supply-chain stability, including a proposed Brics AI open-source zone and a 2027 services trade forum. Energy & Shipping Risk: Iran destroyed a U.S. Saildrone Explorer near the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent jumping above $107 as maritime disruption fears rise. AI Meets Markets: Bloomberg reports AI “slowdown” calls may pressure chip and supply-chain stocks short term, but investors expect spending on computing infrastructure to stay strong. Investor-State Ruling: South Korea won a final ICSID annulment bid against a Chinese investor seeking about $196m, with the panel citing investments made in violation of domestic law. Inflation Watch: Oman’s inflation hit 3.4% in August, driven by transport and food, while Sweden’s election campaign leans on VAT cuts and energy-cost relief. Regional Deals: South Korea is nearing its first U.S. investment project under a tariff agreement, while Kazakhstan’s leader highlighted BRICS trade and transit ambitions.

WTO Reform Push: BRICS called for restoring a fully functioning two-tier binding WTO dispute settlement and appointing new Appellate Body members, warning unilateral tariffs and non-tariff barriers are disrupting trade and supply chains. Middle East Trade Risk: Iran said it destroyed a U.S. unmanned drone near the Strait of Hormuz, as Houthis threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—raising oil-price and shipping disruption concerns. Inflation & Rates: Japan’s wholesale inflation stayed elevated in August, strengthening the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike; in the U.S., markets reacted to sticky inflation fears. Trade Tensions (US-Canada): Trump said a Canada deal could come “fairly soon,” while repeating complaints about tariffs on U.S. farmers. Digital Trade & Logistics: Ethiopia launched customer-facing digital portals for shipping and rail freight to speed cargo booking, tracking, and payments. Business & Investment: Malaysia’s PM Anwar met major firms to expand India-Malaysia cooperation; Bulgaria sought Chinese EV and high-tech investment; Korea Investment & Securities signed partnerships with Fidelity, PIMCO and Carlyle. Local Economy: Houston restaurants face inflation pressures and add credit-card surcharges; Danville tourism revenue jumped nearly 51% as events and a casino draw visitors.

BRICS Summit Watch: India’s Modi urged the BRICS Business Council to cut the “top 10” trade barriers, back 100 startups annually, and create 1,000 new partnerships, as leaders met in New Delhi amid wars and energy stress. Local-Currency Push: Iran’s Araghchi said BRICS members back settling trade in national currencies, with a common currency still “under consideration.” Payments & Trade Logistics: Indonesia’s Kadin proposed easier cross-border mobility, interoperable payment systems, and more investment in people and trade services. Energy Shock: Brent jumped to a four-month high near $109 as West Asia tensions threaten growth and inflation via higher import costs. India-Russia Dealmaking: Modi and Putin discussed lifting bilateral trade to $100bn by 2030 plus energy, critical minerals, and agriculture. Canada-US Trade: Trump said a new US-Canada deal could come “fairly soon,” even as tariffs keep escalating. EU-Turkey Cypriot Aid: The EU approved €34m for SMEs, innovation, and Green Line trade, alongside energy and water infrastructure. SME Finance in India: SBI is building a UPI-based credit tool for small businesses without GST. Ukraine War-Risk Insurance: Ukraine is considering raising VAT to fund an insurance pool for business losses from attacks.

U.S.-China Tech Friction: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy demanded Ford cut technology ties with Chinese battery maker CATL, escalating national-security pressure in the auto supply chain. Markets & Inflation Watch: Asian stocks slid as oil and bond yields jumped on Middle East supply fears and a looming U.S. inflation print; Bitcoin hovered near $77,000 ahead of the data. BRICS Trade Push: Modi met Putin in New Delhi to expand trade, defense, energy and critical minerals, with a roadmap targeting $100B by 2030. Malaysia Investment & Policy: Mondelez completed a RM90m “Crumb Tower” in Shah Alam to boost chocolate-ingredient self-sufficiency; Malaysia’s Budget 2027 preview urged moving AI beyond data centers toward enterprise adoption, IP, cybersecurity and productivity. Regional Inflation Snapshot (Philippines): Inflation trends diverged across regions, with Mimaropa rising to 5.4% and Baguio easing to 5.8% in August. Risk & Compliance: A Malaysia-focused captive insurance conference highlighted captives as strategic risk-financing tools, while an AI-native regulatory survey flagged growing compliance pressure. Trade Disruption Risk: Reports said Yemen’s Houthis seized the Red Sea port of Mocha, raising shipping and energy-trade concerns.

U.S.-Canada Trade Clash: The White House moves to ban Canadian dairy, alcohol and motorcycles from Sept. 29, adding procurement exclusions as tariffs and retaliation keep escalating. Markets & Inflation: U.S. stocks slide for a fourth straight session as oil jumps and wholesale inflation keeps rate-hike bets alive; ECB also lifts rates to 2.5% amid energy-fuelled inflation risk. Canada Policy & Industry: Prime Minister Carney’s cabinet meets in Banff as trade war pressure rises and Alberta’s Oct. 19 separation vote looms; BMO says mining needs more roads and power-line investment to “supercharge” output. Investment & Expansion: Ford commits another $1B to Kentucky’s truck plant paint shop; Dubai’s Mediclinic Parkview plans a Dh420M expansion through 2027; UAE pledges about $46.5B for Germany, including potential data-center projects. Global Trade & Diplomacy: Xi calls for open trade with the UK as China seeks to counter U.S. decoupling; EU leaders push space investment and autonomy. Entrepreneurship & Skills: Afghanistan-Iran efforts train 300 Afghan women for marketing and market access, while Bangladesh orders a merger of agrochemical trade bodies to streamline imports and distribution. Local Business Resilience: Indiana launches new one-stop recovery shops; Auckland’s City Rail Link opens after years of disruption; a Montana grant funds a new Prairie County ambulance.

Energy & Inflation: Ireland’s August inflation jumped to 3.7% as energy costs surged, with housing and transport adding pressure while markets price in more rate hikes. Oil Markets: Brent pushed above $100 amid Middle East escalation, keeping inflation fears alive across Europe and beyond. Banking & Deals: Enbridge agreed to buy Tallgrass crude transportation for about $2.55–$2.6 billion, while Bank First’s merger with Peoples State Bank cleared federal approval and is set to close Dec. 4. AI & Investment Ops: OMBA is running FINBOURNE agent tools in production for six months, cutting operational burden by at least 20%, as more firms automate daily investment workflows. Trade & Geopolitics: The UK move to restrict goods tied to illegal Israeli settlements drew support from eight Muslim-majority countries, and the EU is set to consider temporary trade liberalization with Armenia. Infrastructure & Jobs: Google plans a €13bn Finland AI infrastructure build, targeting major GDP and job support during 2027–28. FDI & Regional Growth: Cambodia registered 37 investment projects worth about $233m in August, expected to create roughly 23,000 jobs.

Canada-U.S. Trade War: Canada is pushing back as Trump expands bans and tariffs on Canadian goods, with Unifor urging Ottawa to use every economic lever, including the Foreign Extraterritorial Measures Act, to protect jobs and production. Investment Readiness: The Canadian Infrastructure Council released a guide for governments to answer six questions to unlock private capital, ahead of a Canada Investment Summit aimed at long-term funding for infrastructure. Markets & Capital Flows: CIRO resumed trading for Corton Theta TM Alpha Fund (TPUT) and halted South Pacific Metals (SPMC) pending news, underscoring ongoing deal and liquidity churn. Corporate Finance: Canada Life Investment Management proposed mutual fund mergers and objective changes to streamline its lineup, subject to unitholder approval. Inflation & Energy: Oil pushed above $100 amid Mideast flare-ups, feeding inflation fears as ECB and Bank of England officials warn about macro pressure. Global Business Tech: Randstad’s Work Monitor flags a Canada “AI reality gap,” where employer optimism outpaces worker trust and perceived benefits. Climate & Green Transition: Azerbaijan’s COP29 leadership stressed private-sector action to cut emissions and drive sustainable investment. Food & Trade: The UK Food and Drink Federation forecast higher food inflation into 2027, citing energy, logistics, and weather shocks. Legal & Investor Risk: Dentsply Sirona faces a trial over claims it misled investors about pandemic-era problems, while multiple investor-rights notices highlight active securities litigation.

Oil & Geopolitics: Brent crude pushed above $100 a barrel as US-Iran tensions and attacks on tankers and Saudi facilities raise fears for Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea supply disruptions. AI & Infrastructure: Google says it will invest at least €13bn in Finland over two years to build digital infrastructure for AI, including data centres and clean-energy projects. Data Centres in Asia: PwC forecasts Singapore’s data-centre investment rising to $19.2bn annually by 2050, with regional demand driven by power and land constraints. Trade & Sanctions: The UK moved to ban trade with Israeli settlements, prompting diplomatic backlash from Israel and support from Arab League and other countries. US-Canada Trade War: Washington escalated with new bans and tariffs on Canadian goods, deepening uncertainty for cross-border business. Regional Deals: Iran-Iraq trade could reach $20bn if barriers ease; India and the US say their trade pact is “more or less” finalised. Business & Jobs: Pratt & Whitney plans a $25m Poland expansion adding 120+ jobs, while Malaysia’s industrial production grew 4.7% y/y in July.

US-Canada Trade War: The White House says the US will ban Canadian dairy, most alcohol and motorcycles in three weeks, after Canada retaliated with tariffs on $20bn of US imports—sparking knock-on effects for businesses and procurement. Local Business Pressure: In Canada, small retailers say tariffs and higher shipping costs are squeezing margins and demand; in the US, construction and road detours are also hitting foot traffic and sales. Trade Routes & Investment: Canada is pushing non-US exports, with Prince Rupert’s CANXPORT export facility opening as a faster Asia link. EU/Geopolitics & Trade Controls: 12 countries move to tighten trade curbs on Israeli settlements, with HRW calling the UK-France-Canada ban a “positive” step. Economic Security & Energy Deals: South Korea’s US investment plan prioritizes major Texas energy projects, while the EU unveils a €200m package for Greenland amid Arctic security tensions. Business & Finance Enforcement: Europol targets an underground “Dubai Bank” network tied to drug trafficking, seizing assets worth about €20m. Small Business Policy: The US SBA proposes major changes to small-business size standards for government contractors.

Canada-U.S. Trade War: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20bn of U.S. goods (15%–50%) took effect Tuesday, hitting steel, dairy, appliances, farm equipment and more, as negotiations with Washington broke down and both sides trade barbs over industrial access and language protections. Oil & Inflation Pressure: Global oil is expected to stay in a high-risk band as Hormuz-related disruptions, refinery outages and inventory draws lift Brent’s outlook; markets also wobble ahead of U.S. inflation data, while Hungary’s August inflation eased to 1.3% y/y. Southeast Asia Trade & Energy: Malaysia reported strong first-half trade growth (exports up 29.2%), with E&E leading, while also planning gas capacity growth to support rising demand from data centres. Business & Tech: The Trade Desk said it will cut 15% of staff to “align resources,” and Shelly launched a cloud Business Manager platform for integrators. Biotech Investor Calendar: Multiple firms scheduled investor events and calls, including Anavex’s strategy update and Eupraxia’s Nasdaq upgrade.

Banking M&A: EverBank Financial agreed a $3.9bn reverse merger with WaFd, with WaFd continuing as the public holding company and the combined group expected to boost 2027 earnings per share by about 29% (close in early 2027). Trade War Escalation: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on C$27.6bn of US imports kick in Tuesday (15%–50%), targeting steel, dairy, appliances, ag equipment, pulp/paper and electronics—while labor groups in Canada warn working people are getting hit hardest. Inflation Watch: Colombia’s inflation rose 0.39% in August, lifting annual growth to 6.24%, above forecasts and still far above the central bank’s 3% target. EU–China Supply Chains: EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič will meet European CEOs to shape a “diversification” approach away from China, seeking industry buy-in before any formal proposal. UK–Israel Sanctions: UK ministers are set to announce tougher measures on West Bank settlements, including a likely ban on settlement goods and targeted sanctions. Local Growth & Jobs: UK retailers including Tesco and Boots pledged 100,000 jobs to tackle Neets via paid work pathways and interviews after short placements. Business Expansion: Northern Ireland’s Barista Bar is investing £12m in new self-serve coffee machines with Melitta, rolling out across SPAR and EUROSPAR stores from Sept. 21.

Cross-border logistics & trade tech: FedEx says AI and remote monitoring are being rolled into Malaysia–Singapore freight operations as the Johor-Singapore SEZ integration ramps up, aiming for 24/7 customer service and lower transit costs. Capital markets: Kenanga IB reports foreign inflows into Malaysian government bonds hit RM11.1bn in August, with yields rising as US rate-cut expectations cooled and US-Iran tensions lifted oil and front-end Treasury yields. Aviation & travel disruption: Batik Air cancels multiple KL–Jakarta flights due to volcanic ash from Mount Anak Krakatau, offering rescheduling or refunds. Investment & infrastructure: Malaysia’s Pekat Group wins RM57.18m in earthing and lightning protection subcontracts for a Johor Bahru hyperscale data centre. Insurance outlook: AM Best keeps a stable outlook on China’s non-life insurers, citing improved regulation and digitalisation. Business confidence: India’s CII index jumps to 66.0 in Q2 FY27 on stronger demand and capacity utilisation. Retail pressure: UK convenience stores cut investment and lean into automation as taxes and costs squeeze margins. Policy & demographics: Israel election debate spotlights proposals to reduce Haredi family support tied to child allowances and subsidies. Energy & jobs: France and South Korea announce a billion-euro push for the audiovisual industry.

Markets & Rates: Investors are bracing for US inflation data that could shape the Fed’s next move, with Wall Street tracking the September CPI as Treasury yields cool but rate-hike odds stay alive. Europe Watch: European shares ended the week lower as Middle East tensions pushed crude higher and inflation worries returned, even as a Volkswagen turnaround plan offered some support. Trade & Geopolitics: US and Iran tanker strikes are again tightening pressure on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while OPEC+ kept October quotas unchanged, underscoring uncertainty over 2027 output baselines. China & Global Demand: A former US trade official warns China’s export overcapacity is nearing a “breaking point,” as protectionism spreads and market access shrinks. Investment & Business: Workday says AI is already driving monetization, with AI solutions behind more than half of new wins and expanding margins. M&A & Labor: US lawmakers urged regulators to scrutinize the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern rail merger for jobs and safety protections. Regional Growth: Karnataka cleared INR 29,679 crore in investment proposals, with renewable energy and manufacturing leading job creation. Policy & Funding: The UK plans a £150m British Business Bank fund for North of England scale-ups, targeting university spinouts and fast-growing firms.

Inflation Watch (Philippines): In Western Visayas, inflation among the bottom 30% jumped to 9.8% in July, with Iloilo hitting 12.5%, driven mainly by food and fuel costs. Trade Disruption (Nepal-China): A flood destroyed parts of the Rasuwagadhi highway and damaged customs facilities, disrupting Nepal’s main land route to China and threatening goods worth 10+ billion rupees. Market & Fraud (Israel): A Tel Aviv court convicted former UTrade analyst Roy Cuzin for helping an algorithmic trading firm defraud about 600 clients of roughly NIS 77m. Business & Policy (UK): UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said no one in government is satisfied with Labour’s economic performance as growth lags inflation. Corporate Moves (UK Auto): Jaguar Land Rover plans to cut 4,000 jobs amid falling sales and pressure tied to US tariffs. Investment & AI (China): Zhihu proposed a RMB 1.5bn subscription into an AI-focused investment fund, pending shareholder approval. Tourism & Trade Tensions (Canada/US): Canadians broadly back Carney’s tougher stance on the US, even as many worry tariffs will raise everyday costs. SME Support (UK): Colchester Council approved funding for street cleaning, safety and licensing capacity to boost city-centre business confidence. Energy & Industry (Malaysia): Malaysia is laying groundwork for potential civil nuclear applications as it weighs long-term energy mix needs.

US-Canada Trade War: Toilet paper and paper products are getting pulled into the tariff fight, with Canadian agriculture warned that U.S. political shifts won’t quickly unwind the uncertainty. Regional Logistics & Trade: Eswatini Railways showcased a joint exhibition with Mozambique’s CFM and South Africa’s Transnet Freight Rail/Engineering at the Eswatini International Trade Fair to push integrated cross-border routes. Tax & Cost Pressures: North Platte, Nebraska proposed a higher city property tax request despite a lower overall rate, citing wages, insurance and fuel costs. Business Resilience: A Bahamas workshop drew nearly 100 firms to stress continuity planning and faster recovery after hurricanes. AI for Enterprise Ops: Google’s Gemini Business now supports custom Model Context Protocol server connections, letting companies link private tools and data into AI workflows. Insurance Regulation: Pakistan’s SECP recommended adding credit and suretyship business to restricted insurance classes to tighten entry barriers and prudential safeguards. UK Auto Jobs: Jaguar Land Rover is set to announce a voluntary redundancy program spanning two years as it continues recovery after a cyberattack. Investor-Law Deadlines: Rosen Law Firm issued multiple securities-class-action reminders, including Putnam, Papa John’s, and Simply Good Foods.

AI Infrastructure Investment: TCS subsidiary HyperVault plans a 1GW AI data-centre campus in Hyderabad, with up to ₹70,000 crore investment and about 7,000 jobs, aiming for liquid cooling and water-neutral design. Trade Tensions & Policy Response: Alberta launched an online portal for businesses to report impacts from US tariffs and Canada’s counter-tariffs, as lawmakers warn the trade-offs are hitting costs, investment and supply chains. US–Canada Trade Fallout: A new poll says most Canadians back Carney’s move to walk away from a US deal and impose dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs, even if prices rise. EU Trade Support for Armenia: The EU Council approved two-year temporary duty-free access for about 80% of Armenian exports, targeting goods currently affected by Russian restrictions. Oman Investment Push: Oman will bring “Live Oman” to London on Sept. 21 to market urban development and free-zone opportunities to international investors. EV Expansion Watch: BYD says it will announce within a week its next Malaysia move, weighing local partnerships versus its own manufacturing. Corruption Risk in Growth: Bhutan’s Gelephu Mindfulness City is expanding, but authorities are urging firms to adopt clean practices early as the GMC anti-corruption bureau rolls out business integrity briefings. Energy & Markets: Gold futures may see early profit-taking ahead of key US inflation data, while gold remains supported by central bank buying and Asian demand.