AGP Executive Report

Energy & Markets: A US-Iran peace framework and talk of reopening the Strait of Hormuz sent oil down and stocks up, with Brent sliding toward a three-month low and Asia-Pacific currencies rallying as inflation fears ease. Inflation Watch: India’s wholesale inflation jumped to 9.68% in May, driven by fuel and power costs and spillovers into food and manufactured goods, sharpening pressure on policymakers. Cost of Crisis: The Iran-linked fuel shock is estimated to have cost UK drivers about £4bn via higher petrol and diesel prices. Policy & Investment: Malaysia’s economy ministry says inflation should stay in a 1.5–2.5% range in 2026 and flagged a parliamentary statement on energy and supply-chain disruptions; it also reported RM92.8bn in foreign direct investment in Q1, led by Japan. Trade & Logistics: Egypt and DP World discussed expanding logistics centers to turn Egypt into a regional trade hub for Africa. Business & Security: Delhi cyber police busted an online investment fraud ring tied to about Rs 1.56 crore, arresting two suspects. Environment & Trade Capacity: Seychelles ran training to boost capacity to identify and manage hazardous chemicals in trade. Geopolitical Risk: A report warns the occupied West Bank economy is being dismantled by restrictions, with unemployment around 30%.

AI & Markets Security: The Philippines SEC warned of AI deepfakes using Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto’s voice and image to push fake “syndicates” promising fixed returns, urging investors to verify SEC registration and avoid sending money. Monetary Policy & Inflation: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is weighing further rate hikes as inflation cools from 7.2% (April) to 6.8% (May) but price pressures remain, with economists split on how hawkish to go. Investment Migration: Kuwait approved a 15-year investor residency track for qualifying investment-entity owners, managers and families, with minimum investment and capital thresholds. Energy Shock on Livelihoods: Mozambique fishermen in Maputo are staying ashore as Middle East-driven fuel price spikes and supply issues raise petrol and diesel costs sharply. Trade & Regional Resilience: CARICOM trade ministers met in Guyana to address energy, supply-chain and fuel/food cost shocks that are squeezing inflation and food security. Bilateral Deals: India and France set a five-year goal to double trade to $32bn and launched an AI working group and innovation roadmap, while the UK and Japan sealed a £18bn investment package ahead of the G7. Corporate Transparency: Bangladesh pushed sustainability reporting to strengthen accountability and investor confidence. Political Risk Watch: India’s TMC faces escalation after 20 MPs announced a merger with NCPI and support for the NDA, adding uncertainty for business sentiment.

M&A Watch: The U.S. Justice Department approved the $81 billion Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger, arguing it will boost competition, though European regulators still need to sign off and some U.S. states (including California) are weighing antitrust lawsuits. Energy & Inflation: A widening energy shock is tightening fiscal space, with oil near $92–95/bbl in FY27 and analysts warning higher fuel and food costs will strain budgets and living standards. Climate Risk: India faces elevated El Niño odds (80% June–August, near/above 90% into November), raising food-inflation risk even as reservoirs and vegetable arrivals look steadier. Tech & Jobs: The UK and Japan are set to finalize an £18bn-plus investment and technology package spanning AI, semiconductors, quantum and life sciences, with tens of thousands of jobs expected. Renewables Deal: Masdar will buy a 49.99% stake in Repsol’s Spain renewables portfolio (705MW operational), valuing it at €849m. Trade & Investment: Myanmar targets $29bn in foreign trade for 2026–27, while Kazakhstan pushes non-commodity exports to Sweden to cut technical barriers and improve logistics. Regional Business Climate: Malaysia says fuel, food and medicines remain secure amid the West Asia conflict, with supplies planned out through mid-2026.

M&A Watch: The US DOJ cleared the $111B Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger, removing a major antitrust hurdle and setting up a new media giant spanning CBS, CNN, HBO and streaming assets. Inflation & Energy: US inflation jumped to 4.2% in May, with energy prices driving most of the increase as Middle East tensions disrupt oil flows and lift gasoline and heating costs. Trade & Investment Links: Abu Dhabi and Shanghai signed an MoU to deepen business ties and boost mutual investment, while Qatar and the US discussed ways to enhance trade and investment cooperation. Global Trade Outlook: QNB says global trade growth is improving despite protectionism and geopolitical headwinds, supported by tech investment and steadier manufacturing. Policy for Business: Bangladesh plans a special taskforce to deregulate and speed investment approvals, and business leaders warn deficit financing could crowd out private-sector credit. Regional Trade Stress: Tunisia’s trade deficit widened past 10B dinars in early 2026, driven largely by higher energy import costs. Investor Risk: India’s markets saw expectations of slower foreign selling as the rupee steadies, but a Pune case highlights fraud risk after investors were promised 5% monthly returns. Labor & Governance: Nepal’s Supreme Court allowed the government to proceed with dissolving trade unions in government agencies.

Inflation Watch: U.S. CPI rose to 4.2% in May, the highest since April 2023, with energy prices driving most of the jump as West Asia conflict disrupts oil and logistics. Global Growth Risk: The World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5%, warning Middle East tensions are feeding inflation and weakening growth prospects worldwide. Media M&A: The U.S. Justice Department approved Paramount Skydance’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery (about $110B), clearing a key antitrust hurdle while states and critics may still challenge the deal. Wealth & Markets: SpaceX’s IPO sparked a Wall Street surge and made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, reigniting debate over billionaire influence. Trade Strategy: The U.S. is using reciprocal trade deals to reshape global value chains and reduce China-linked supply routes. UK Economy: The UK contracted 0.1% in April, with services hit as geopolitical disruptions affected major sporting and entertainment events. Business Climate: Pakistan’s budget drew mixed reactions—some tax relief welcomed, but leaders criticized weak industrial and export incentives amid high energy costs. Regional Investment: Guangdong reported double-digit trade growth in May, while Vietnam- and Sweden-linked efforts push innovation and digital transformation partnerships.

Cuba Economic Overhaul: President Miguel Díaz-Canel unveiled sweeping 2026 reforms to liberalize the economy, including more room for private firms, faster approvals, decentralizing foreign-currency control, and replacing broad subsidies with targeted aid as fuel shortages bite under US sanctions. SpaceX IPO Shock: Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire after SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut pushed the company’s valuation above $2tn, triggering fresh debate over inequality and governance as investors weigh the new listing. Inflation Watch: Namibia’s May inflation accelerated to 4.1% (core 3.1%), with fuel and food costs driving pressure; analysts expect further rises as temporary relief measures fade. Trade & Sanctions Risk: The EU proposed a new Russia sanctions package that includes entities based in India, potentially complicating an EU-India trade deal ratification timeline. Corporate Deals: Malaysia’s TMK Chemical proposed a RM920m cash-free, debt-free acquisition of Chemical Company of Malaysia, while Scanwolf won a RM21m factory contract—both signals of continued dealmaking despite cost uncertainty. Labor & Housing: Queensland renters face a looming “iceberg” rental crunch as landlords exit faster than new investors replace them.

Markets & Policy: The ECB raised rates by 25 bps to 2.25%, citing war-driven inflation risks, while Bangladesh’s CPD warned a big budget could stoke inflation if spending doesn’t boost productivity. Inflation & Metals: Gold and silver swung on US inflation and Fed rate worries, with energy and West Asia tensions adding pressure. Regulation & Trading Rules: The US SEC is seeking to drop the long-running trade-through rule, arguing it adds cost and confusion. Tech & AI Infrastructure: NetBox Labs launched an AI-enabled infrastructure intelligence platform, and Coinbase rolled out AI agent accounts that can trade and spend. Space & Capital Markets: SpaceX begins Nasdaq trading after a record $75bn IPO, with Tesla merger speculation still unsettled. Energy & Grid Investment: New York’s power grid operator urged “all-of-the-above” generation investment to protect reliability. Business Growth & Investment: Cambodia registered 37 projects worth about $570m in May, targeting 25,000+ jobs; Qatar pushed investor dialogues and new free-zone manufacturing plans. Local Economy & Health: Palm Bay opened a no-cost small business support center, while Zimbabwe faced medicine shortages and hospital strain.

US Trade Uncertainty: Trump says the USMCA with Canada and Mexico could expire in 2036 unless renewed, injecting fresh risk into North American supply chains ahead of talks. Inflation & Energy Shock: US inflation jumped to 4.2% in May, with energy costs tied to the Iran war; Trump argues prices will fall once conflict ends. Eurozone Tightening: The ECB raised its benchmark rate to 2.25% as Middle East-driven inflation pressures rise, while the IMF cut eurozone growth to 0.9% and warns against loosening fiscal rules. Trade Finance Reform (Bangladesh): Bangladesh Bank unveiled a framework to expand alternative trade finance beyond letters of credit, including open account, supply chain finance and factoring. Faster Approvals (Bangladesh): The government set a 7-day deadline for business approvals via a digital single-window system to boost investment. Investment Climate (Bangladesh): Chambers broadly praised the FY27 budget as business-friendly, but flagged implementation and revenue targets as key risks. Critical Minerals & AI Trade: UNCTAD and DMCC reports highlight how demand for EV and clean-tech minerals and AI-driven goods are reshaping global trade and tariff exposure. Energy Payments (Egypt): Egypt cleared about $6.1bn in oil and gas arrears to foreign partners, aiming to strengthen investor confidence. Small Business Capital Access (US): VizyPay partnered with Jaris to let independent merchants apply for embedded business loans in minutes. Local Growth (Kentucky): Beshear announced $1.8m for rail upgrades to improve industrial access and safety, targeting jobs and business expansion. EU Illicit Trade: A new EU report says illicit cigarettes now exceed 10% of consumption, driven largely by counterfeiting. Tech for Warehouses: Insight Works released Warehouse Insight v2.16 for Microsoft Dynamics 365 Business Central, improving scanning and assembly workflows.

US Inflation Shock: May CPI jumped to 4.2% y/y, driven by energy and gas prices, reviving rate-hike pressure and rattling markets as Trump publicly said “I love the inflation,” drawing backlash. Middle East Energy Spiral: Escalating US-Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz disruption are pushing oil higher, feeding inflation and prompting policy responses. ECB Policy Pivot: The ECB is set to raise rates for the first time since 2023 to counter Iran-war-driven eurozone inflation, despite growth concerns. Trade Politics: Trump said he may not renew the USMCA with Canada and Mexico, setting up tough negotiations ahead of a July 1 decision. Regional Trade & Food Security: The Philippines’ push to lift Vietnam trade to $10B by 2026 is colliding with Manila’s shifting rice import rules, threatening a key supply corridor. Inflation Watch (Europe & Asia): Moldova’s inflation held at 6.8% y/y in May while Egypt’s eased to 13% in May, signaling uneven progress. Business & Investment Moves: Saudi Arabia resumed Lebanese exports after nearly five years; Bangladesh’s budget targets investment revival with tax and logistics incentives; and Singapore wealth managers are getting more selective as AI reshapes software investing.

U.S. Inflation Shock: May CPI jumped to 4.2% year-on-year, the highest in three years, driven mainly by energy costs after the Iran war tightened supply via the Strait of Hormuz—gasoline rose sharply and households are feeling the squeeze as prices outpace wages. Political Fallout: Trump doubled down on “loving” inflation while Democrats blamed his Iran policy and tariffs, raising the stakes for midterms. China Stabilizes, Costs Shift: China’s consumer inflation held at 1.2% as energy pressures eased, while producer prices climbed on stronger demand for AI-linked goods. Trade & Investment Moves: The UK trade envoy visited Cambodia to deepen ties as Cambodia graduates from LDC status; the UAE and Australia signed an export-finance cooperation MoU; Canada and Turkey agreed to restart free-trade talks, including renewable and nuclear energy. Energy Projects Signal New Investment: PNG advanced its ultra-deepwater Mailu-1 exploration with TotalEnergies and PETRONAS, while South Korea highlighted hypertension control as a health-policy export success. Corporate & Market Watch: Paramount alleged Netflix is trying to derail the Paramount-WBD merger; Campbell’s warned of “tough decisions” in snacks amid weaker demand.

Markets & Inflation Watch: The US dollar held steady as investors braced for May inflation, while gold and silver slipped on risk-off positioning. Geopolitics & Energy Costs: Fresh US-Iran strikes and missile activity around the Strait of Hormuz rattled Asian stocks and kept oil and inflation fears in focus, with analysts warning supply-chain pressure could linger. China Macro: China’s consumer inflation stayed flat while factory-gate prices rose near a three-year high, underscoring uneven cost pressures. Central Banks: Norway’s core inflation jumped unexpectedly, supporting expectations of further rate hikes, while the Bank of Japan is seen leaning toward another move to curb inflation risks. Corporate Deals: BizLink agreed to buy Interplex Datacom for $850m to expand data-center-related business. Tech & Chips: TSMC said inflation is squeezing costs but it will price based on technology rather than broad hikes. Business & Trade Policy: Malaysia’s PM urged countries to defend free trade and oppose punitive tariffs, while the GCC launched a unified investor number to improve cross-border market access. SME & Finance: Cyprus banks showcased sector stability in Brussels, and Armenia rolled out time-limited SME financing offers via ACBA Bank.

Inflation Watch: Economists expect the U.S. CPI to show May inflation at 4.2% year-on-year (core 2.9%), with energy costs still driving the heat and raising pressure on the Fed. Geopolitics & Commodities: Gold and silver slid again as Iran-related tensions revived inflation fears and rate expectations; oil’s moves are feeding into the same outlook. Trade & Growth: The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April as exports hit a record, helped by strong demand for industrial supplies, capital goods and energy exports. M&A/Antitrust: Paramount’s team fired back in the Justice Department’s review of the $111B Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger, with Netflix accused of trying to sway regulators. Labor & Public Services: Sri Lanka faces rail disruption from planned union action, with morning services affected. Business Climate (US): San Francisco voters rejected a ballot measure that would raise CEO pay-ratio taxes, a win for business groups. Global Investment: Dubai Chambers hosted French investors to pitch the emirate as a gateway for regional expansion. Trade Facilitation Tech: A new Asia-Pacific report says AI use in trade facilitation remains under 15% across surveyed economies, despite growing customs and logistics applications. Fraud & Enforcement: A $21.3M settlement resolves alleged fraud tied to service-disabled veteran-owned small business contract set-asides. Middle East Food Shock: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is pushing millions toward severe food insecurity via higher food and fuel costs and disrupted trade networks.

AI IPO Race: OpenAI confidentially filed for a US IPO, joining Anthropic and following SpaceX as investors chase exposure to the AI boom. South Korea–US Investment: Seoul’s Cabinet passed an enforcement decree for a $350bn US investment pledge, laying out how projects will be judged “commercially viable.” Consumer & Competition: South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission fined Coupang $327,000 over misleading discount ads for paid membership subscribers. Middle East Investment Courts: Oman said a specialised investment and trade court is boosting investor confidence by speeding dispute resolution and protecting rights. Trade & Regional Growth: Trinidad and Tobago’s manufacturers’ association launched a trade mission to Guyana and Suriname to find export and investment opportunities. Business Expansion: Grasim approved a $323m Phase II expansion of its Lyocell plant in Karnataka, targeting major capacity growth by 2030. Markets & Inflation Watch: Mongolia reported May inflation at 11.2%, driven by imported goods and meat prices. Corporate Governance: A settlement in the WWE-UFC merger class action avoids a trial that could have forced disclosure tied to McMahon-related allegations.

Telecom M&A: Bouygues Telecom, Iliad and Orange have signed an MoU with Altice France to buy SFR in a deal valuing the business at about €20.35bn (about $23.5bn), a major consolidation bet for Europe’s crowded mobile market. Energy & Capital Markets: Kuwait’s Action Energy showcased its landmark IPO at Arqaam’s MENA investor conference, pitching governance and transparency as key to attracting institutional demand. Trade Flows: Bangladesh’s trade deficit widened 21.8% to $22.21bn in July–April 2025-26 as imports rose faster than exports, while Nigeria reported improved trade balance in Q1 2026 amid falling import values. Regional Trade Rules: ECOWAS trade officials met in Accra as private-sector complaints mount over stalled commitments and AfCFTA implementation gaps, with customs and digital trade infrastructure high on the agenda. Tech for Business: Mercantile Bank PLC launched trade finance analytics software to streamline foreign trade reporting and monitoring across its network. Regulation & Security: The Pentagon updated its list of Chinese military-linked firms, including Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, ahead of tighter DoD contracting restrictions. Consumer Inflation Signals: The NY Fed survey showed one-year inflation expectations easing to 3.46% in May, even as job-loss fears worsened. Business Risk: Sportradar faces a securities class action after a sharp share drop tied to allegations about its business model and revenue legality.

Middle East Escalation: Israel and Iran traded missile strikes again, raising fears the April ceasefire is unraveling and pushing oil higher—an immediate hit to global risk sentiment. Inflation & Rates: OECD inflation ticked up (headline 4.4% in April) while markets reacted to renewed energy-price pressure; Fitch cut 2026 growth forecasts on the oil shock. Energy Costs in Focus: India’s LPG price rose again by ₹29 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten supply, with the government absorbing part of the cost. Trade & Investment Gateways: South Africa and the UAE doubled down on ties as trade hit $8bn, while Dubai’s economic zones logged record 2025 trade of about AED491bn. Corporate Moves: Digital Realty plans Malaysia data-centre expansion (about 32MW) to support AI and high-performance computing. Business & Policy Watch: South Africa’s student housing sector warned providers still don’t know 2026 rates; ITAT ruled taxmen can’t treat ₹1.28 crore cash deposits as unexplained when past scrap-business treatment was accepted. Cybersecurity: Google flagged an extortion campaign targeting US firms via invoice-themed emails and vishing.

Middle East Energy Shock: IATA warned West Asia airlines’ 2026 profits could be cut about in half to $23bn as war-related airspace disruptions and high fuel prices bite, even as global passenger load factors stay near record levels. Inflation Watch (Bangladesh): Bangladesh’s inflation rose to a 16-month high of 9.42% in May, driven by food prices, with analysts warning June could push higher after power-tariff hikes. Monetary Policy (Nigeria): Nigeria’s central bank lifted Treasury Bill yields at its June auction despite holding the policy rate at 26.5%, as bids far exceeded the amount offered. Trade Facilitation (India): India is rolling out a Land Port Management System to digitise border workflows, aiming to cut cargo and passenger delays via single-window clearances. Trade Tech (Bangladesh): Mutual Trust Bank launched “MTB Trade X,” a digital portal to streamline trade transaction requests and tracking. Gulf Remittances (Bangladesh): Remittance inflows from the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain fell sharply in Jan–Mar 2025-26 amid regional tensions, with the UAE the biggest drop. Regional Business Links: Serbia and South Korea completed free-trade agreement talks, while Rosatom said it wants to expand its digital/IT presence in Serbia. Dubai Trade: DIEZ logged record 2025 trade of about Dhs491bn, up 46%, reinforcing Dubai’s non-oil trade momentum.