AGP Executive Report

Energy Shock: Oil and gas prices are surging as attacks disrupt Middle East shipping, lifting bond yields and pressuring stocks. The G7 plans to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves over four months—about a day of global oil demand—as diesel costs threaten transport, food prices and household budgets. Asia Investment: Penang drew RM18.2 billion in US manufacturing investment from 2020 through the first half of 2026, and supplies 87% of Malaysia’s electronics exports to the US. Trade Deals: The UAE and Thailand have concluded negotiations on a trade pact aimed at lowering barriers and expanding cooperation in manufacturing, logistics, food security and clean energy. Their non-oil trade topped $10 billion in the first half of 2026. Inflation Outlook: Malaysian businesses are absorbing some higher fuel and raw-material costs, but Bank Muamalat expects inflation to rise from 1.8% this year to 2.2% in 2027 as firms pass more costs to customers. UK–India Ties: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will lead company executives and regional mayors on a trade mission to India, seeking new partnerships under a free-trade deal expected to boost bilateral trade. Energy Investment: Japan’s Helical Fusion raised ¥3.23 billion in a funding round that brings Fuji Electric in as an investor and industrial partner.

Energy & Inflation: IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned the global energy shock could persist into 2027, with oil near $100 a barrel and constrained refining and shipping keeping fuel costs high. Trade Tensions: The EU is pressing Beijing over a trade deficit exceeding €1 billion a day and restrictions on rare-earth exports; China has warned it will respond to new EU measures. Investor Rules: The SEC cautioned that investors coordinating campaigns to influence corporate boards could face added legal scrutiny, following a climate-focused campaign at ExxonMobil. Public Finances: Malaysia says it has recovered RM31.3 billion linked to 1MDB, but could still owe RM20.1 billion if no further assets are recovered. Household Costs: A new US report finds seven in 10 people struggle to afford essentials, with grocery prices up as much as 43% in Mississippi. AI Returns: A survey of large companies finds many are struggling to show returns on AI spending, with disconnected tools and unclear accountability hampering results.

Malaysia’s Budget: Prime Minister Anwar says Friday’s 2027 budget will pair economic growth with cost-of-living relief and a fairer share of its benefits. Tax revenue rose 9% to RM129.6 billion in the first half of 2026. Saudi Arabia’s Pivot: Falling foreign investment and a higher-than-planned deficit are testing Vision 2030. Riyadh is now prioritising projects with stronger returns as it pursues $100 billion in annual FDI by 2030. Trade Tensions: The U.S. goods deficit widened to $105.6 billion as imports hit a record; India says stalled U.S. trade talks leave little room for compromise. EU lawmakers are also pressing for a tougher response to China’s market barriers. Investment and Rates: Essar-backed Mesabi Metallics is advancing an $18 billion U.S. steel project, while Lunate expects global interest rates to remain elevated well into 2027, keeping borrowing costs high for UAE businesses and households.

Trade & Macroeconomy: The U.S. trade deficit widened to $105.6B in August, the biggest since just before last year’s Trump tariffs, as imports rose 4.3% amid AI-related build-out and tariff effects. AI & Productivity Debate: New reporting flags “dizzying” AI spending and investor doubts, with economists questioning whether broad productivity gains will materialize fast enough to justify valuations. Semiconductors & Supply Chains: Taiwan is emerging as the stronger AI trade bet versus South Korea, with AI chips and related equipment driving a much larger share of exports. M&A & Corporate Restructuring: Skydance’s Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger has closed, with CEO David Ellison saying the priority is “rebuilding trust” after a bruising antitrust fight. Banking Deals: Isabella Bank and Grand River Commerce cleared regulatory hurdles for their merger, with a Nov. 2 closing date set. Local Business Costs: In Cebu, port operators seek a 25% jump in cargo-handling fees, while business chambers urge a staggered rollout to avoid added pressure on MSMEs. Emerging Markets Investing: Tanzania’s market is seeing rising domestic participation, but analysts warn investor education and protection need to keep up. Cybersecurity for SMBs: Coverage argues small firms can get high-return, low-cost cyber basics in place to reduce breach risk.

US Health Manufacturing: Becton Dickinson struck a government deal to expand US medical device manufacturing, pledging $19bn over several years in exchange for relief from future tariffs on covered products and inputs. Malaysia Budget Watch: Malaysia’s Budget 2027 will be tabled this Friday at 3:30pm, with analysts flagging potentially higher transport spending and knock-on job wins for construction firms. MedTech & Industrial Policy (Malaysia): Khazanah’s Dana Impak says it has mobilised RM2.6bn to back 130 companies and 4,200 talents, aiming to crowd in external capital as global markets get more selective. Payments & Enterprise Tech: SAP-backed Tereina launched a payments layer inside SAP software, letting firms pay suppliers and staff in fiat or stablecoins. Trade & Investment (Indonesia): Indonesia targets Rp3.84tn in downstreaming investment from 2025-2029 to boost exports and push growth beyond Java. Regional Business Climate: Thailand’s stock investor confidence slipped in September amid global volatility and currency pressure, despite earlier AI/data-centre optimism. Corporate Deals & Expansion: Curia plans to expand sterile API manufacturing in Spain, with completion targeted for Q4 2028.

Human Rights & Trade: Venezuelan “blood gold” shipped to the U.S. is stuck in warehouses because refiners won’t process it under sourcing rules tied to forced labor and armed-group links. Legal & IP: Delaware’s Chancery Court let Boehringer Ingelheim proceed with discovery in its trade-secrets fight against United Therapeutics, but denied a rushed forensic schedule. Investment & Governance: Bangladesh’s investor-week message: trust in reporting, auditing, governance, and risk management is the real lever for attracting global capital. Energy Investment: U.S. VP JD Vance said South Korea’s Alaska LNG investment details still need work, despite “strong demand” for U.S. gas. Trade Policy: USTR opened public comment on the US-Mexico-Canada deal without asking what tariffs cost Americans, with estimates pointing to hundreds of dollars per household. M&A Watch: U.S. Supreme Court rejected a last-minute bid to block the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger, clearing the way for a Tuesday close. Local Economy: Georgia’s DCA opened $10m CHIP housing grants for 2027, while New Zealand business confidence jumped to a year-high despite geopolitical and oil-supply worries.

Energy & Deals: Yinson Production (West Africa) and Eni Ghana agreed to expand the FPSO John Agyekum Kufuor gas handling project, extending the lease to 2036 and adding about US$600m to firm backlog, with completion targeted for Q1 2028. AI & Markets: Malaysia’s Zetrix AI said JPJ suspended its services as a collection agent from Oct 5, while AMRO lifted Malaysia’s growth forecast on AI-driven exports and investment. Banking Consolidation: Intesa Sanpaolo won key backing for its €35bn MPS takeover bid after the largest shareholder signaled support, as Italy’s banking merger race heats up. Corporate Finance: Air Liquide announced a €4bn buyback and margin-boost targets through 2030, keeping the door open to major acquisitions. Investing & Stocks: Micron and SpaceX both drew investor attention—Micron amid debate over upside after a huge rally, and SpaceX after Musk pointed to AI computing expansion. Housing & Policy: Malaysia’s Budget 2027 preview points to continued support for homeownership and affordable housing via existing schemes rather than sweeping reforms. Trade & Geopolitics: Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned global oil stockpiles are “scarily thin” as Hormuz risk and replenishment timelines strain supply resilience.

UK Investment Push: City of London policy chair Chris Hayward says the UK’s £4.1tn investment base is growing, but its share of global capital is slipping—prompting a push to convert “safe haven” status into more foreign direct investment via initiatives like the Invest Connect platform. SME Growth Metrics: Enterprise Oxfordshire reports backing 1,700+ businesses, creating 211 jobs and safeguarding 878, with £45m social value delivered through its growth hub. Inflation & Rates: US inflation undershot forecasts, lifting hopes for fewer Fed hikes; the knock-on effect is pushing up long-end rates and weighing on NZ mortgage pricing. Corporate Deals & Housing: Ingenia opens due diligence for Warburg Pincus’ $3bn+ housing bid; in Saudi Arabia, Al Othaim launches a real estate arm targeting SAR16bn for ~8,000 homes. M&A/Markets: AkzoNobel nears a $1bn+ sale of its Southeast Asia decorative paint business to Nippon Paint; Greece sees foreign direct investment nearly double in 2026. Business & Trade Tensions: Pakistan’s trade deficit hits $10.8bn in Q1, with calls to cut production costs and boost exports; Ghana’s recovery improves on paper, but “kitchen table” prices and jobs remain the test. Energy & Commodities: Middle/heavy crude supply tightens as outages hit, pressuring refiners and supporting demand for heavier grades.

G20 Trade Talks: China said the G20 trade ministers’ meeting in Milwaukee failed to deliver on overcapacity and forced-labour issues, blaming “divergent opinions” tied to US tariffs and noting no outcome documents were issued. Trade Policy & Inflation: The US economy showed slower hiring while mortgage rates and inflation stay high, adding pressure to households and business demand. Investment & Tax Reform: Malaysia’s semiconductor industry urged Budget 2027 changes—raising the automation allowance cap to RM100m and boosting R&D deductions—while EY Malaysia called for a refined SST to cut tax cascading and improve compliance. Capital Markets: India’s NSE leadership said the next phase is deeper financialisation of household savings beyond just more demat accounts, as retail participation rises. Business & Jobs: UK retailer Boots won approval for a multi-million-pound Nottingham warehouse upgrade to support temperature-sensitive medicines logistics and protect jobs. Local Economy: A UK vehicle-services firm in Little Walden reported devastating losses after a workshop fire spread quickly, destroying equipment and a nearby home. Skills & Youth: South Africa’s skills agency launched a digital-ecommerce training push for 20,000 young people, with the minister urging big business to open its doors. Energy & Climate Tech Funding: Australia’s Amber secured $78.5m Series E funding and a UK re-domiciliation to scale home battery automation and expand in Europe.

Banking Momentum in India: Jammu & Kashmir Bank reported 19.38% YoY growth in total business to ₹3.10 lakh crore in Q2 FY27, while Bank of India said global business rose 21.07% YoY to ₹18.91 lakh crore and deposits and advances also expanded. Retail Lending Push: L&T Finance flagged a 27% YoY jump in retail disbursements to over ₹24,000 crore, with strength in urban and gold finance, and IDBI Bank posted 18% YoY growth in total business to ₹6.27 lakh crore. Corporate Restructuring: Wipro completed a merger of US step-down subsidiaries to simplify its group structure. Energy & Inflation Watch: Sri Lanka kept its policy rate at 8.75% but warned inflation will stay high amid Iran-war fuel pressure; US PCE inflation rose less than expected in August, easing rate-hike odds. Trade & Investment Signals: Nigeria proposed a five-point plan to cut barriers to intra-African trade and expand trade finance; Qatar’s padel investment paid off with historic Asian Games gold. Local Business & Housing Pressure: Nigeria’s property prices are rising fast as inflation and construction costs bite, while a Milpitas business park faces redevelopment into 791 homes.

Media & M&A: Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery are set to merge into “Skydance,” a roughly $110B deal expected to close Oct. 6, combining major streaming and TV brands and expanding entertainment franchises. Inflation Watch: The Netherlands’ inflation rose to 3.4% in September, driven mainly by higher energy and fuel prices. Pakistan Macro: Pakistan’s inflation eased to 10.3% in September, but energy and fuel costs kept pressure on households; exports rose 17.6% while the trade deficit widened. Corporate/Markets: Skyworks’ Qorvo deal could reshape the investment case, while broader market commentary flags weaker breadth despite near-record indexes. Business Environment: Oman is promoting pharma investment via Milan’s exhibition and has updated Oman Business Platform fee payments to simplify investor processes. Local Economy & Housing: Valencia protesters marched against housing costs and real-estate speculation, targeting the “housing business” tied to evictions and tourist rentals. Workforce & Skills: A Malaysia forum said the focus should shift from efficiency to resilience, with AI reshaping jobs and the need for higher-productivity growth. Scam Alert: Malaysia police reported a RM300,000 loss tied to a fake “Kad Prihatin Siswa” investment scheme.

Eurozone Inflation Watch: European stocks bounced after a sharp sell-off as investors braced for eurozone inflation data and the next US jobs report, with bond yields still elevated and rate expectations in flux. UK Business Lending: EY forecasts UK bank lending to businesses will more than halve this year as uncertainty and higher costs push firms to rein in investment, with a gradual recovery expected later. Nigeria Investor Confidence: Nigeria’s push toward stability is framed through sovereign credit ratings and the Central Bank’s work to rebuild monetary and FX market architecture, aiming to lower financing costs for businesses. Trade & Investment Flows: Vietnam–Malaysia trade surged 43.4% in eight months, while Pakistan’s trade deficit stayed high at $10.8b in the first quarter as imports outpaced exports. Business Regulation & Risk: Canada’s CRA urged firms to verify GST/HST registration before paying suppliers, and Bermuda moved toward a Competition Act review with Deloitte assessing cost-of-living and merger rules. Corporate/Deal Moves: Paramount–Warner Bros. merger is set to form “Skydance,” with leadership reshuffles expected after the $110b deal closes.

Eurozone Inflation: Eurostat says eurozone annual inflation jumped to 3.8% in September, driven mainly by energy prices (up 18.8% y/y), putting fresh pressure on the ECB to stay tight. UK Fuel Shock: RAC reports diesel hit £2 a litre for the first time, a 40.5% surge since the start of the Iran war—raising costs for households and fleets. Energy & Investment: Reliance’s Anant Ambani backed a ₹1 lakh crore investment push in Andhra Pradesh, including compressed biogas plans tied to job creation. LNG Fundraising: MidOcean Energy closed a 2026 equity raise with $4bn+ in commitments to expand a global LNG platform. Water Risks to Trade: CDP warns water stress can disrupt supply chains and expose companies to about $397bn in trade-related risk. Regional Trade Push: ZimTrade says Zimbabwe’s COMESA Business Forum will open direct routes for local firms into regional buyers and green industries. Crypto Custody Rules: The SEC proposed a crypto custody framework for investment advisers and funds, signaling tighter oversight for managed crypto assets. M&A Watch: Paramount-WBD’s $110bn mega-merger was approved, with streaming leadership changes expected. Healthcare Pricing Probe: Karnataka audits found private hospitals selling some medicines at markups up to 5,000% over landing costs.

SEC Enforcement: The SEC accused a New York private fund adviser and CEO of misappropriating $1.2M from pre-IPO investment funds, raising fresh scrutiny of how advisers handle client money. AI & Trade: China-ASEAN commerce is getting faster and more localized as AI helps sellers translate demand and tailor pitches, while G20 trade talks pushed ministers to denounce coercive “weaponization” of food but stalled on forced-labor and excess-capacity language. Monetary Policy Watch: South Korea’s inflation eased to 2.9% y/y, while Tokyo core inflation jumped, strengthening the case for more BOJ hikes. Crypto & Markets: Bitcoin’s “soft-inflation” pop faded as Treasury yields stayed elevated; US stocks eked out gains in choppy trade. Local Business Impact: Philadelphia crews responded after a long-leaking pipe at a vacant property washed out nearby business frontage. EV Charging: Ampol bought Evie to expand its charging footprint, positioning retail fuel stops as EV service hubs.

Meta Leadership in Southeast Asia: Dhruv Vohra is set to lead Meta’s Southeast Asia business across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, with a focus on helping advertisers use AI and messaging to grow. Media Merger Cleared: A US judge approved the Paramount-Warner Bros. antitrust settlement, paving the way for the $110B merger to close Oct. 6 after states’ conditions on film output and production spending. Trade Deal Takes Effect: Ukraine’s free trade agreement with Türkiye entered into force Oct. 1, with tariff preferences for Ukrainian exports starting immediately and for Turkish-origin imports from Jan. 1, 2027. Inflation Watch: US inflation data stayed softer than expected, easing rate-hike bets and lifting stocks, while Europe shares slid despite the calmer US backdrop. Regional Growth & Investment: Pakistan’s finance minister said investor participation in economic growth has more than doubled in 2.5 years as IPO activity rises; Canada announced $1.2B to protect oceans and expand marine monitoring and safety. Business & Policy Pressure: Michigan small businesses say health care costs are their top concern, while Zimbabwe’s Zimra urged firms to formalize and use duty rebates to cut investment costs for industrial retooling.

Inflation Watch: The U.S. PCE inflation report cooled month-to-month, with headline PCE up 0.31% in August and core PCE flat at 0.25%, easing pressure on the Fed even as inflation stays above target. Markets: Stocks closed mixed as cooler inflation was offset by high Treasury yields and rising oil prices. Deal Watch: A judge approved Paramount’s settlement with state attorneys general, clearing the way for the $81B Paramount–Warner merger to close soon. Trade & Politics: G20 trade ministers met in Milwaukee amid protests over fair trade, forced labor rules, and tariff-driven uncertainty. Energy Investment: Trump announced South Korea plans for $54B in U.S. projects, including Alaska LNG and major power builds in Texas. Global Business: South African exporters are pivoting toward China and other BRICS markets to hedge trade friction. Regulation & AI: The FTC opened a broad investigation into AI safety practices involving OpenAI and Anthropic. Business Climate: Wales business confidence plunged, while Nigeria cut its benchmark rate to 23% to support cheaper credit.