AGP Executive Report

Rates & Inflation: The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% but warned inflation remains high. Australia’s inflation rose to 4.3% in September, strengthening expectations of another RBA hike next week. Trade: Canada and the UAE signed a free-trade deal, while Australia’s EU pact faces political resistance despite forecasts of cheaper imports and a boost to exports. Germany’s Merz is urging closer EU-Asia ties to build a more stable trade order. Business Outlook: South Korean business sentiment rebounded to its highest level in over four years, buoyed by manufacturing and tourism. Commodity Risks: The World Bank expects commodity prices to rise 23% this year as energy costs and supply disruptions threaten inflation and growth. Regional Trade: Nepal’s exports jumped 57% in the first quarter, but its trade deficit widened 34.7% to Rs 532.5 billion.

Telecoms: Malaysia’s Maxis neither confirmed nor denied reports of a tie-up with U Mobile; a merger could create the country’s largest wireless operator by market value. Prices: Kenanga raised Malaysia’s 2026 producer-inflation forecast to 7.4%, citing energy risks, while consumer inflation remains subdued under subsidies. Digital Economy: Malaysia’s online economy is forecast to grow 20% to $48 billion this year, matching Vietnam’s pace in Southeast Asia. Investment: Malaysian materials firm Vertex signed a $2.2 billion, 15-year supply deal covering India and plans a $300–$400 million Nasdaq listing in 2027. Rates and Jobs: Australia’s faster core inflation has revived expectations of an RBA rate hike; Iran faces a deepening slump, with officials warning that up to 1.4 million more people could leave the labor market. Corporate Moves: Nelson Peltz offered $7.35 a share for Wendy’s, sending shares up 15% before the market opened, while Poundland’s owner reportedly prepares for administration, putting 12,000 jobs at risk.

Inflation & Rates: Australia’s inflation rose to 4.3% in September, with underlying inflation at 3.6%, strengthening expectations of an RBA rate hike next week. Higher fuel and building costs are adding pressure on households and businesses. Growth: Cyprus GDP growth accelerated to 3.3% in the second quarter, led by household spending and investment, though imports grew faster than exports. Trade: Sri Lanka’s apparel industry warns a proposed anti-terrorism law could jeopardise EU tariff concessions after 2027, putting export-linked jobs at risk. Business Health: Critical financial distress among Yorkshire firms fell 16.2% year on year, but early-stage distress edged higher. Investment: A planned $5.8 billion Hyundai-POSCO steel plant in Louisiana is expected to create more than 1,300 direct jobs. Globally, more than three-quarters of insurers surveyed by BlackRock plan to increase private-market investments.

AI Investment: Nvidia plans to invest $3 billion in Meta as the companies deepen their AI partnership; Meta’s planned share sale has grown to $97.5 billion to fund AI infrastructure. New Projects: Sarawak is weighing a proposed $50 billion investment in AI, new technology and data centres, while Uttar Pradesh plans 4,250 MW of battery storage for ₹5,525 crore to help meet peak power demand. Trade: India’s trade portal has drawn 3,500 registrations, aiming to connect US buyers with Indian exporters, especially smaller firms and first-time exporters. MIDA says closer coordination across Borneo could help unlock investment: Sabah and Sarawak attracted less than 7% of Malaysia’s approved investment in 2025. Inflation: Ireland’s September inflation rate was 4.1%, but reached 4.4% for households headed by someone under 35 and 4.3% for renters, with energy and housing costs weighing heavily. Business Risks: Malaysia is reviewing possible support for debt-burdened AirAsia, with the government citing risks to jobs and air connectivity if the carrier fails. Investment Oversight: Prime Minister Anwar says overseas projects such as London’s Battersea redevelopment need closer scrutiny after high initial costs led to losses.

Economic Growth: South Korea’s GDP grew 1% in the third quarter, beating forecasts as exports and investment strengthened, though household consumption slipped. Inflation Pressures: UK shop-price inflation accelerated to 2.1% in October, with retailers warning rising energy and food costs are starting to feed through to consumers. Trade Tensions: The U.S. warned that a €3.4 billion European Investment Bank loan to Airbus could threaten the transatlantic aircraft-financing truce. Energy M&A: EQT agreed to buy Range Resources in an all-stock deal, creating a natural-gas producer valued at more than $50 billion. AI Financing: Meta’s fundraising plans have drawn interest from Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, while Anthropic says it may need to raise capital sooner than expected. Corporate Restructuring: Skydance is offering employee buyouts as it integrates Warner Bros. Discovery after its $111 billion acquisition and seeks billions in cost savings.

AI Funding: Meta plans to raise up to $95 billion to finance its AI expansion, while Anthropic has filed for an IPO. Inflation & Rates: Pakistan’s central bank raised its benchmark rate to 12% as higher oil prices fuel inflation risks; economist Mohamed El-Erian argues fiscal restraint, not tighter Fed policy, is the better response. Trade: India says most talks on a US trade pact are complete, while Pakistan-Iran cargo traffic has partially resumed after a border shutdown. Energy Deals: Moeve and Galp ended talks on a proposed downstream merger, saying they could not agree terms. Investment: Nigeria outlined a $7.1 billion sugar plan to reduce imports and create jobs; India’s BL Agro plans a $739 million investment in Tanzania, starting with edible-oil processing.

Rates and Inflation: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates this week, but September inflation accelerated to 3.7%, and officials may signal that further hikes remain possible. AI Investment: SoftBank is discussing a potential $50 billion AI and data-centre investment in Malaysia, while Audi has announced a roughly $4.2 billion manufacturing investment in Georgia. Global Trade: At the World Investment Forum in Doha, WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said global goods and services trade reached a record $35 trillion last year. She urged investment in shipping routes and infrastructure to make supply chains more robust. US-China Tensions: Beijing condemned proposed US rules that would broaden restrictions on American investment in Chinese biotechnology and other sectors, warning they could further politicize economic ties. Emerging Markets: Somalia is pressing for accessible climate finance, sustainable debt and more private investment, saying global shocks are straining fragile economies.

Global Investment: Doha opened the World Investment Forum, bringing more than 5,000 delegates together to discuss investment, sustainable growth and international partnerships. AI & Energy: Johor plans 5 gigawatts of solar power to help meet surging data-centre demand; approved projects could require an additional 4–5GW of electricity. NVIDIA and Firebird are also advancing plans for a major AI data-centre buildout in Kazakhstan. Capital Flows: The African Development Bank raised $2.5 billion in bonds, attracting $4.8 billion in orders. UK university spinouts drew £1.56 billion in the first half, but first-time investment plunged 68% to £47 million. Business & Trade: Audi announced a $4.2 billion investment in a Georgia manufacturing plant. Malaysia Aviation Group secured a $75 million trade-finance facility to support suppliers across Asia. Inflation & Rates: UK economists say markets may be overestimating how far the Bank of England will raise rates, as households continue to feel the strain of higher borrowing costs.

Islamic Finance: Malaysia’s Islamic finance sector now accounts for 48% of national financial assets. Banks increased business financing by 9.7%, while microfinancing grew 13.3%, as the industry expands support for small firms and exporters. Investment Outlook: Doha opens the World Investment Forum today, bringing together global officials and investors. Malaysia also says a global investor intends to put US$50 billion into AI, technology and data centres—an ambitious plan, not yet a completed investment. Tech and Trade: The U.S. has tightened restrictions on Chinese investment in AI and biotech, drawing Beijing’s opposition. EU lawmakers head to China this week to address trade barriers and a goods-and-services deficit that the EU says has reached €1 billion a day. Growth and Inflation: Odisha secured investment proposals worth 53,893 crore rupees, with projects projected to create more than 20,000 jobs. In the U.S., inflation, consumer confidence and corporate earnings are in focus as businesses and households contend with high prices and trade uncertainty. Pakistan’s Economy: Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb urged a shift from stabilisation to export-led growth, productivity and private investment to avoid another crisis cycle.

Trade: The U.S. has lifted tariffs on some Canadian goods, and President Trump says talks on a new deal are advancing, offering relief to businesses facing cross-border uncertainty. Investment: Malaysia’s Selangor state is targeting RM90 billion in investment this year after approving RM70 billion in the first half. Oman is also leading a $500 million fund for projects across Central Asia and the Caucasus. AI and Growth: The U.K. unveiled a £165 million AI investment package for research, security and jobs. Vietnam’s finance minister says continued foreign investment is vital to achieving faster growth, alongside stronger domestic industries. Clean Energy: A €22 billion power corridor linking Azerbaijan to Europe has moved into the design phase, with plans to export renewable electricity from 2032. Economic Pulse: The Dominican Republic reported 5.6% growth in September, while annual inflation eased to 5.12%.

Trade: Trump says Canada is working hard toward a new deal and has amended some tariffs on Canadian goods. Inflation: Karnataka’s urban inflation reached 5.27% in September, above the national 4.88% rate; the state’s overall rate was 5.86%. Infrastructure: Land disputes are slowing Bengaluru’s Business Corridor: just 250 of 600 acres needed for its first stretch have been acquired. IPO Boom: Jio Platforms’ offering drew 22.19 times subscription, with 1.39 crore applications and bids topping ₹7.4 lakh crore. AI Investment: Nvidia and TCV backed video startup Higgsfield as it expands; the latest funding amount and valuation were not disclosed. Investment Curbs: The U.S. Treasury proposed extending restrictions on investments in sensitive technologies to biotechnology and additional countries, including Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Telecoms: Astro Malaysia agreed to sell its broadband assets to Maxis for RM83 million, aiming to focus on content and entertainment; completion is expected in the second quarter of 2027. Property Investment: Victoria plans tax breaks for eligible housing projects to attract foreign capital, as approved overseas residential investment fell nearly 50% to A$4.7 billion in 2025–26. Trade Exposure: Germany’s pharmaceutical industry expects output to shrink 2.2% and real sales 1.8% this year as US tariff uncertainty fades but earlier export growth reverses. Corporate Risk: Nestlé will remove its Russian business from its accounts after losing operational control, booking a SFr1.4 billion non-cash charge. Trade: Shanghai’s goods trade rose 17.9% to CNY3.9 trillion in the first nine months, with exports of high-tech products up 33%. Energy Investment: Scatec and the EBRD are launching a renewable-energy platform for Egypt, backed by up to $221 million from the development bank. Monetary Policy: Kazakhstan cut its base rate to 15.75% as annual inflation eased to 9.3%; GDP grew 4.2% in the first nine months.

Japan Inflation: Core prices rose 2.1% year over year in September, while a measure excluding food and fuel accelerated to 2.4%, strengthening expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. Trade Realignment: Canada and Turkey will begin free-trade talks in November, aiming to lift bilateral trade toward $10 billion as Ottawa seeks new partners amid U.S. tariff tensions. Uzbekistan and the EAEU are also pursuing closer trade, investment and transport links. AI’s Commercial Stakes: Google’s in-house chips could become a business worth as much as $75 billion, turning a tool developed to reduce computing costs into a potential revenue stream. Corporate Watch: Nestlé Pakistan reported nine-month sales growth of 6.3% to PKR160 billion, but said fuel-driven costs and inflation cloud its outlook. Getty Images filed for bankruptcy after its planned Shutterstock merger collapsed, as AI-generated images intensify pressure on its business. China Investment: China reported 19.3% growth in foreign investment in its pilot free-trade zones in January–August, even as overall foreign capital inflows fell 4.3% in the first nine months.

Inflation & Rates: New Zealand’s annual inflation eased to 3.7%, but four major banks expect the central bank to raise rates by a quarter-point next week as core pressures persist. UK inflation also climbed, reaching 3.5%. Corporate: Tesla’s third-quarter profit fell 44% to $787 million, though free cash flow beat expectations at $1.5 billion. Tesla and SpaceX have formed committees to assess a possible merger. Trade: India and Poland agreed to aim for doubling bilateral trade by 2030, with cooperation spanning energy, mining, technology and defence. AI & Business: AI projects now generate about 30% of Romanian-founded Linnify’s revenue, up from less than 1% in 2023; the firm says 10 AI-agent projects are in production. Commodities: Malaysia’s palm oil council expects crude palm oil to stay above RM4,600 a tonne in November, citing seasonal production declines and biodiesel demand. Growth: The IMF forecasts UAE GDP growth of 7.7% in 2027, backed by economic measures and efforts to diversify trade routes.

Energy Shock: Gulf economies face a sharp contraction in 2026 as Hormuz disruptions threaten oil exports, trade and investment; crude has topped $100 a barrel. Inflation & Rates: Georgia’s central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.4% and lifted its growth outlook. South Korea held rates at 3% amid price and debt risks, while New Zealand inflation eased to 3.7% but is expected to rebound. Mega-Merger: SpaceX and Tesla are exploring a potential $3.5 trillion combination, though valuation, governance and shareholder approval remain hurdles as Tesla’s quarterly profit fell. Financial Risk: Barclays reportedly shifted capital capacity to its prime-brokerage business as hedge-fund demand for AI-related trades strained lending limits. Global Trade: Panama Canal cargo hit a record 521 million tons in fiscal 2026, lifting revenue 16.6% as shipping routes shifted amid Red Sea and Gulf disruptions.

Corporate Deals: SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year on year, and formed committees to examine a possible Tesla merger. The tie-up is not assured and would require shareholder approval. Inflation and Rates: UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, while India’s central bank signaled rate cuts are off the table, with future moves dependent on inflation. Trade: India and New Zealand’s new free-trade agreement took effect alongside a pact to exchange origin data electronically, helping firms claim tariff benefits. Taiwan, meanwhile, blocked Grab’s $600 million purchase of Foodpanda’s local delivery business, citing competition concerns. Regional Commerce: The Philippines ran a $29.13 billion goods deficit with China in 2025, larger than its combined deficits with its next four biggest deficit partners. Infrastructure Investment: The European Investment Bank is assessing projects in Azerbaijan, including a Nakhchivan railway and regional energy and digital links.