AGP Executive Report

Middle East Energy Shock: IATA warned West Asia airlines’ 2026 profits could be cut about in half to $23bn as war-related airspace disruptions and high fuel prices bite, even as global passenger load factors stay near record levels. Inflation Watch (Bangladesh): Bangladesh’s inflation rose to a 16-month high of 9.42% in May, driven by food prices, with analysts warning June could push higher after power-tariff hikes. Monetary Policy (Nigeria): Nigeria’s central bank lifted Treasury Bill yields at its June auction despite holding the policy rate at 26.5%, as bids far exceeded the amount offered. Trade Facilitation (India): India is rolling out a Land Port Management System to digitise border workflows, aiming to cut cargo and passenger delays via single-window clearances. Trade Tech (Bangladesh): Mutual Trust Bank launched “MTB Trade X,” a digital portal to streamline trade transaction requests and tracking. Gulf Remittances (Bangladesh): Remittance inflows from the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain fell sharply in Jan–Mar 2025-26 amid regional tensions, with the UAE the biggest drop. Regional Business Links: Serbia and South Korea completed free-trade agreement talks, while Rosatom said it wants to expand its digital/IT presence in Serbia. Dubai Trade: DIEZ logged record 2025 trade of about Dhs491bn, up 46%, reinforcing Dubai’s non-oil trade momentum.

US-India Trade Talks: India and the U.S. say they’re on track to execute the first tranche of a bilateral trade pact by mid-July, with key issues like U.S. tariff proposals and India’s Section 301 relief still unresolved. Middle East Energy Shock: Businesses and consumers brace for more disruption if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut into September, raising trade and energy costs. Global Finance Friction: A World Economic Forum report warns geoeconomic fragmentation is already costing the world $213–$307 billion a year and pushing up inflation, tariffs, and investment restrictions beyond rivals. AI Infrastructure Push: Data-center investment is set to reach about $1.6 trillion by 2030 as “AI factories” reshape the sector, while policymakers debate AI’s social and economic fallout. Energy Transition Gap: IATA says sustainable aviation fuel will hit only about 0.8% of aviation fuel use in 2026, despite net-zero pledges. Regional Inflation Watch: South Korea’s inflation accelerated to 3.1% in May as fuel prices spiked. Africa Investment & Trade: Morocco tops Africa’s business climate rankings, while Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026 faces backlash for potentially eroding EAC trade exemptions. Food & Logistics: Qatar reports a surge in new firms with non-Qatari capital after reforms, and Somalia pitches the New Mogadishu Maritime Port to unlock long-term trade growth.

Religious Tourism & Health: India’s Char Dham yatra is drawing a massive surge ahead of the monsoon, with officials warning of serious health risks as about 47 lakh pilgrims have registered and heavy crowds hit routes like Kedarnath and Badrinath. Housing Protest: Thousands marched in Valencia demanding an end to “the housing business,” calling for lower, indefinite rental contracts and an end to evictions. Business Litigation: South Florida Law won an $8 million unanimous jury verdict in a Broward County commercial dispute, including punitive damages. Food & Agriculture Investment: Ghana launched the $3.5 billion AgriConnect Compact to boost food security, jobs, and agri value chains, targeting cocoa, oil palm, rice, maize and poultry. Global Trade Outlook: FAO projects world cereal production and trade to decline in 2026/27, with stocks tightening slightly. Foreign Investment Signals: Portugal ranked among Europe’s top destinations for foreign investment, with 60% of surveyed leaders planning to invest or expand. Digital Lending Expansion: Moongipa Capital Finance signed deals to use MoneyAse’s platform and expand digital lending reach in line with RBI rules. Corporate/Market Watch: RBI widened direct equity access for overseas investors, doubling investment limits under PIS amid inflation and growth concerns.

US-Iran Tensions: Fresh drone and missile exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz reignited fears for a fragile ceasefire, even as the US confirmed World Cup visas for Iranian players. Middle East Security: The US said it struck Iranian radar sites after intercepting drones, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported missile attacks on “enemy bases,” with Kuwait and Bahrain on alert. Energy & Industry: Bangladesh’s industrial push is running into a “gas readiness” problem as demand outpaces supply and factories face uncertainty over when utilities will actually connect. Trade & Sanctions: Russia and Cuba formalized cancer vaccine cooperation, while Russia and Venezuela advanced a 2030 roadmap aimed at boosting bilateral trade despite US sanctions. Investment & Infrastructure: The US DFC approved a TRIPP Development Company to fund transport and connectivity projects tied to peace and supply-chain goals. Regulation & Markets: Malaysia’s Energy Commission is studying a 2027 regulatory sandbox to test energy technologies as it moves toward market liberalisation. Local Business Climate: Nigeria’s Ogun free-trade zone crackdown turned violent, with journalists assaulted during enforcement actions. AI & Policy: Trump floated the idea of the US government taking stakes in AI companies and sharing profits with Americans. Gold Outlook: Gold futures in Malaysia are expected to trade in a $4,400–$4,500 range next week on safe-haven demand tied to Fed rate expectations.

Inflation Watch (Philippines): Manila says May inflation eased to 6.8% y/y from 7.2% in April, crediting its “Uplift” plan as transport and food costs soften, while warning oil-price and El Niño risks remain. Inflation Watch (Turkey): Turkey’s finance minister says price-stability policies will continue as May inflation hits 32.61% y/y, with rents indexed and services inflation still elevated. Labor & Cost of Living (Canada): A B.C. living-wage report finds a third of workers still earn below what it costs to live, widening the gap between minimum pay and essentials. AI & Policy (US): Trump says his team is looking into letting the public take a stake in AI firms and plans a meeting with AI executives next week; the Pentagon also urges companies to handle “weaponization potential” responsibly. Markets & Investment (US): Semiconductors slide hard as the “AI trade” cools, with the SOX down more than 8% and major chip names losing massive market value. Trade & Business (North America): Agriculture groups push to renew USMCA, warning that tariff uncertainty and retaliation could spill into broader economic instability. Regional Integration (SADC): SADC adopts legal moves to speed regional trade, tourism visas, and pooled medicine procurement, aiming to cut costs and ease cross-border movement. Energy & Logistics (Cuba): Sunwing suspends Cuba service indefinitely due to fuel shortages, affecting bookings and offering rebooking or refunds.

US-India Trade Talks: Trump said a deal with Prime Minister Modi is “imminent,” even as the USTR pushes forced-labor-related tariffs (12.5%) tied to talks and an interim framework. Central Banking & Inflation: India’s RBI held rates at 5.25% but cut FY27 growth to 6.6% while lifting inflation to 5.1%, citing energy and supply-chain shocks; it also eased overseas-investor rules, including raising NRI equity caps. Capital Markets: Broadcom’s strong AI-chip and revenue results still rattled markets after it didn’t raise its full-year AI chip outlook, dragging major chip-linked stocks. Trade Policy Clash: China’s business lobby urged the US to return to multilateral trade rules after Section 301 forced-labor enforcement actions. Energy & Geopolitics: EU transport officials said there’s no jet fuel shortage in Europe despite Middle East disruption risk; Nigeria is weighing debt refinancing as oil prices lift investor sentiment. Corporate/Tech: Apple approved Poke as the first standalone AI agent in Messages for Business, while Toyota-linked funding backs Chinese AI glasses maker Rokid. Regional Business: Pacific Islands Forum leaders endorsed a regional response mechanism to manage Middle East-driven fuel and supply-chain risks. Ireland Social Impact: Reports say gangs are using children as young as seven to carry drugs and money in Ireland’s drug trade.

Fed Watch: San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly said AI is unlikely to be a near-term driver of inflation and that policy is focused on a 12-month horizon, while Kansas City Fed’s Jeffrey Schmid framed the choice as patience versus rate hikes to bring inflation back toward target. Global Growth & Energy: Fitch cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4% as the US-Iran oil shock lifts inflationary pressure, but said AI and IT spending is cushioning the hit—especially in Asia. Supply Chains: The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index eased but stayed elevated, with the Fed’s Beige Book pointing to energy costs from the Iran war spilling into shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizer. AI Infrastructure: Schneider Electric warned Malaysia’s next AI data-center push must start with disciplined planning across power, cooling, water, and renewables. EU-Moldova Investment: Moldova’s EU integration got a boost at an investment conference with over €1bn in new partnerships and financing tied to the EU Growth Plan. M&A & Markets: The Supreme Court backed the FCC’s ability to fine telecoms over location-data safeguards, while SpaceX IPO buzz lifted public space stocks like Virgin Galactic and Rocket Lab. Housing Pressure: Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom faces a deep rental shortage, with long waits for subsidized units threatening year-round community stability.

AI & Inflation: US inflation picked up as energy costs rose after the Iran conflict disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, feeding into groceries, shipping and fertilizer. AI Capital Markets: Alphabet’s $85B stock sale (with $45B raised first) underscores investor demand for AI buildout, as the company targets $180B–$190B in AI capex this year. Semiconductors Supply: US trade groups warn AI data centers are tightening memory chip supply, pushing up prices and risking shortages for autos, electronics and medical devices. Food Safety: WHO estimates unsafe food causes 866M illnesses and 1.5M deaths annually, with major economic losses from productivity hits. UK Business Costs: CBI says the cost of doing business is nearing a tipping point as taxes and energy costs squeeze profitability. Emerging-Market Trade & FX: India is moving to ease foreign investor tax rules to steady the rupee, while foreign inflows into Indian stocks hit a decade low. Trade Policy Risk: EU officials are preparing citizens and firms for a potential trade war with China, expecting retaliation. Regional Investment: South Korea asked Libya to simplify procedures for Korean investors, especially in oil and refining.

US Trade Policy: The Trump administration is proposing new Section 301 tariffs of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies over alleged forced-labor failures, a move business groups say could add confusion for supply chains. Inflation & Rates: The Fed’s Beige Book points to renewed pressure from Middle East-linked energy costs, while fresh data shows US services prices rising and ADP reports 122,000 jobs added in May, keeping the labor market resilient. Housing Pressure: Australia’s top economist warns mortgage holders to brace for further rate hikes and the first broad home-price decline in years. China-EU Friction: China criticizes EU cross-border forced-subsidy probes as “extraterritorial jurisdiction,” escalating trade tensions. Energy Investment: Delfin Midstream approved a $-scale first US FLNG project in Louisiana, targeting 4.4 million tonnes of LNG per year, as global energy demand and geopolitics reshape capital flows. Local Business & Jobs: Washington County, Florida approved a tax incentive for Evolution Welding’s expansion, including apprenticeships via a technical college.

US Trade Crackdown on Forced Labor: The USTR has advanced Section 301 actions tied to forced-labor enforcement gaps, including a proposed 12.5% tariff on India and a public comment process for a new US-China Board of Trade aimed at more balanced, reciprocal trade. Vietnam Trade Pressure: Vietnam’s trade deficit hit a record $5.21bn in May as imports rose on higher energy and semiconductor costs, while exporters brace for potential new US tariffs. AI for Business, With Guardrails: Microsoft unveiled MAI-Thinking-1 at Build, while business-focused guidance warns that AI agents need strong controls before they can take action. Australia Growth vs. Data-Center Boom: Australia’s GDP grew just 0.3% in the March quarter, with cyclone disruptions weighing on exports even as data-center investment propped up machinery spending. UK Labor Market Risk: Labour’s zero-hours contract proposals drew warnings that a stricter reference-period approach could worsen youth unemployment. Investment and Deal Flow: Versant backed microdrama platform GammaTime, while Signable secured multimillion-pound funding to expand eSignature growth.

AI & Data Centers: Schneider Electric unveiled an 800VDC “sidecar” power system to support next-gen Nvidia GPUs, aiming to cut congestion and losses as AI data-center electricity demand surges. Inflation Watch: Croatia’s annual inflation eased to 5.2% in May (from 5.8% in April), with energy still the main driver. Trade Policy: The Trump administration proposed 25% tariffs on Brazil despite a US trade surplus, citing “unreasonable” practices and anti-corruption concerns; Brazil’s Lula signaled indignation and possible retaliation. AI Governance: Trump signed an executive order creating a voluntary framework for companies to share frontier AI models with the government for up to 30 days before release, while limiting licensing and preclearance. Regional Economy: AMRO raised its ASEAN+3 inflation forecast for 2026 to 1.8% (from 1.4%), warning West Asia conflict disruptions are feeding energy, commodity and logistics costs. Business & Finance Innovation: Backpack Securities said it will let users trade US stocks and move them on-chain via a regulated brokerage/custody setup, rolling out in June. Local Business Risk: A Spokane salon owner sued the city and Catholic Charities over downtown crime tied to nearby low-barrier housing. Energy Security: UN warned El Niño has an 80% chance to develop June-August, raising risks of extreme heat and weather shocks.

AI & Capital Markets: Alphabet plans to raise up to $80bn via equity sales to fund AI compute, signaling the scale of the AI spending boom even as investors worry about returns. Energy & Geopolitics: The Iran war is pushing global LNG and gas trade into the shadows, with Strait of Hormuz risks reshaping shipping and prices. Trade Talks: India and the US begin fresh negotiations aiming to lock in the first phase of a bilateral trade deal, including potential relief from Section 301 probes. Inflation Watch: Pakistan’s consumer inflation jumped to 11.7% in May, while Indonesia’s rose to 3.08%, both driven by energy, transport and food pressures. Business & Policy: DHL Express and ASEAN-BAC signed an MoU to help MSMEs with cross-border trade, digital logistics and decarbonization. Cyber Risk: Nigeria’s ISSAN warns cyber threats are now a core business and national security issue. Local Economy: South Africa’s uMkhanyakude district municipality is disconnecting water to government and business debtors over unpaid bills. Sports Business: The Eagles traded A.J. Brown to the Patriots for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder, reshaping both teams’ offensive outlook.

SEC Climate Rollback: The U.S. SEC proposed rescinding a Biden-era rule requiring some public companies to report greenhouse gas emissions and climate risks, arguing it exceeds its legal authority—sparking pushback from environmental groups worried investors will lose key data. Markets & Inflation Watch: An AP report says bond-market jitters over Trump’s deficits and the Iran-linked energy shock are pushing up borrowing costs, with 10-year Treasury yields above 4.4% and higher mortgage rates weighing on demand. FTC Fertilizer Probe: The U.S. Federal Trade Commission opened its first formal investigation into fertilizer companies after farmer complaints about price spikes. AI Policy & Media Clash: A New York Times publisher accused AI firms of “brazen theft” of news content, while another report highlights how AI compute costs are now outpacing typical employee salary bills at major companies. Trade Diplomacy: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz met the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas to expand trade, investment, and security cooperation. NFL Meets Business Headlines: The Rams acquired Myles Garrett from the Browns in a blockbuster deal, immediately reshaping Super Bowl odds and betting markets. Pharma Deal: Servier agreed to buy Edgewise Therapeutics’ muscular dystrophy business for up to $2.65B.

China Outbound Rules: Beijing rolled out sweeping new regulations tightening control over overseas deals involving Chinese investors, tech, data and national security; they take effect July 1 and add authorization and unwinding powers for sensitive transactions. Middle East Risk to Trade: Fresh US-Iran strikes underscore how fragile ceasefire talks remain, with oil and shipping disruption risks feeding into inflation and business planning. Central Banks & Inflation: Bank of Korea signaled it can focus more on inflation thanks to strong growth, while RBI economists expect rates to stay put even if May inflation rises. India Manufacturing: India’s manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.0 in May on stronger new orders and output, with stockpiling linked to ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Oman-India Trade: India’s CEPA with Oman kicks in June 1, positioning Oman as a more reliable Gulf trade and energy gateway beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Banking Deal in Uganda: Bank of Uganda approved Standard Chartered Uganda’s sale of its wealth and retail banking unit to Absa Uganda. AI & Chips: Nvidia and Microsoft are set to reinvent PCs with an Arm-based N1X processor for Windows laptops, debuting this fall. Business Resilience for SMEs: Singapore’s SME leaders say the Middle East conflict is forcing faster, more agile operations and pushing sustainability as a survival tool. Water Stress in Baguio: Philippines’ Baguio urged residents to store water ahead of a possible Super El Niño, as demand already exceeds supply capacity.

Inflation Watch (Philippines): BSP estimates May inflation could jump to 7.9%—the fastest pace in over three years—pushed by higher food prices, a weaker peso, and Middle East-linked energy shipping disruptions. Markets & Rates (Philippines): Local stocks stayed bearish as investors weigh US-Iran tensions and upcoming May inflation data on June 5. Trade Policy (US): Business and travel groups warn that removing customs processing at “sanctuary city” airports like Newark could disrupt passenger flows, cargo and supply chains nationwide. Central Banking (Global): Markets remain stuck between above-target inflation and Middle East risk, with the Fed’s PCE gauge showing persistent price pressure. AI Costs (Global): Companies are rethinking AI spending as “agent” features drive higher compute and data-center costs. EU Trade (Global): Eurostat shows strain in EU trade early 2026, with exports down and imports from key partners weakening. ASEAN Supply Chains: US-ASEAN Business Council urges faster customs digitalization and paperless trade to protect regional logistics amid geopolitical shocks. Africa EV Race (Morocco-EU-China): EU fears Chinese EV parts could flow through Morocco to dodge tariffs, turning the country into an “EV battleground.”

Trade & Logistics: Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are lining up a new ASEAN-to-East Asia corridor after Indonesia’s Belawan New Container Terminal, Penang Port and Perlis Inland Port signed a cooperation deal tied to the Perlis Free Trade Zone’s inland clearance depot, aiming to speed cross-border cargo and link digital systems. Inflation Watch (India): India’s finance ministry warns retail inflation could rise as fuel prices jump and monsoon rains look weaker, with Strait of Hormuz disruption still the key swing factor for energy and food costs. Central Banking (US): Fed officials are openly debating whether Iran-linked energy shocks could turn into persistent inflation, with markets pricing a higher-rate risk later this year. Maritime Security: India’s navy chief says maritime and energy security are inseparable for Strait of Hormuz trade, citing threats to merchant shipping and stepped-up surveillance and deployments. Foreign Investment Rules (Oman): Oman lists activities barred for foreign investors under its foreign capital law, including parts of retail and community services plus several craft, heritage and trading activities. Royal Household & Trade Envoy: Court-linked reporting says Buckingham Palace received emails alleging Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor shared confidential information while a trade envoy, as police inquiries continue. Business & Tech: Meta plans to test an AI pendant and expand wearables with a “Wearables for Work” subscription, while Zara’s India venture reports weaker FY26 results as competition intensifies.